Alek Manoah was our number one pick, number eleven overall in the 2019 draft. He spent the end of the 2019 season in Vancouver, making six starts with a 2.65 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 17 innings. Then, the world changed, and he didn’t get to play at all.
The Jays called him up in 2021. He made 20 starts and had a 9-2 record and a 3.22 ERA.
This past season he made our fourth start (6 innings of 1 hit ball), but by the end of the season, he was our number 1 starter. He made 31 starts, brought his ERA down to 2.24 and had a 16-7 record. His strikeout rate dropped slightly (22.9% from 27.7), but he was better in about every other way.
One difference was that he led the league in hit batters in his rookie season we 16 in his 111.2. Last year he also led the league, but with 15 in 196.1 innings. Roughly half as many per inning.
I’d like to think that in the future he will routinely get over 200 innings. And I’d like to think he’ll get some complete games. He looks like the type of guy who would have 250 innings and 10+ complete games back in the old days.
Alek did have a poor start in game one of our playoff round against the Mariners. Of course, it was made worse by Luis Castillo having a terrific start.
Steamer doesn’t think he’ll get to 200 innings, they have him getting 199 in 32 starts. They also think he’s due for a fair bit of regression, thinking he’ll have a 4.03 ERA and a 12-11 record. I don’t see it personally, but who knows?
Of course, with the new dimensions, all our pitchers may see their ERAs double. One of the effects of the new dimensions might be the overuse of our bullpen. More home runs will make starting pictures look worse, which will have managers taking pitchers out quicker and will have them cycling through the guys in the pen more.
They tell us that the higher fences will even out the number of home runs, but most home runs are, you know, fly balls. A few feet of fence height won’t make up for several feet of distance. If you look at the arc of a home run ball, it doesn’t fall to 13 feet high at 368 feet of distance and then stay at that height for another 30 feet.
Yeah, it is an awkward explanation…..but there is a good chance the Jays will be playing in a bandbox next year.