The Toronto Blue Jays struck first in free agency.
This is Blue Jays Nation’s annual 40-man roster review ahead of the new season. If you missed the most recent article, we looked at Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In this article, we’ll look at the Jays’ potential opening day starter, Dylan Cease.
Although free agency begins five days after the World Series, it’s not often you see a major deal happen before the Winter Meetings, which usually come in the first month of December. Evidently angry that they fell just two outs shy and inches away from winning the World Series, the Jays jumped the market to sign arguably the best starter on the market.
On Nov. 26, the two parties agreed to a seven-year deal worth $210 million with a whole bunch of deferrals from 2033 until 2046. At this point in the off-season, it’s still the largest deal handed out, well ahead of Pete Alonso’s five-year, $155 million deal.
In terms of ERA, Cease has been rather inconsistent since his first full big league season in 2021. While he made 12 starts in 2020, Cease posted a 3.91 ERA in 165.2 innings with the Chicago White Sox during the 2021 season. The right-handed pitcher followed that up with a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings pitched in 2022, finishing second in American League Cy Young voting. Alek Manoah was also a finalist for the award that year, funnily enough.
There’s something about odd-numbered years, because Cease finished the 2023 season with a 4.58 ERA in 177 innings pitched. That off-season, he was traded to the San Diego Padres, where he proceeded to post a 3.47 ERA in 189.1 innings pitched, finishing fourth in National League Cy Young voting. Last season, Cease finished with a 4.55 ERA in 168 innings pitched, so what made him earn a seven-figure deal?
Well, it is what Cease could be that makes him so intriguing. We’ve seen it in shades before, his 2022 and 2024 come to mind, but since 2021, Cease has finished each season with a FIP lower than 3.75. Quick lesson on FIP, it measures what a pitcher’s numbers would be like when you isolate what they can control, namely strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs.
Cease’s career strikeout rate sits at 28.6%, which in of itself is dragged down by a 17.3 K% in the 2020 season. Over the past five years, Cease has had a K% of 29.4% or higher in four of the five seasons, the 2023 season being the lone exception. Despite posting below-average walk rates throughout his career, and an elevated HR/9 last season, Cease’s strikeout ability has consistently given him a great FIP throughout his career.
But what if the Blue Jays and Cease can find a way to lower his walk rate while also keeping the ball in the park? Add in one of the strongest defensive teams behind him, being incredibly durable, a high-90s fastball with an excellent slider, and you can see why the Jays jumped the market to sign Cease.
As for his projections according to Fangraphs’ Steamer, it has him pitching 185 innings with a 3.61 ERA and 3.57 FIP, alongside a 27.8 K% and an 8.7 BB%. Those numbers in and of itself is a big boost to the Blue Jays’ rotation, but imagine if he regains his 2022 form. The Jays have shown to be able to get the best out of a starter, look no further than Robbie Ray in 2021.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.