Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a Toronto Blue Jay for the next 14 years.
This is Blue Jays Nation’s annual 40-man roster review ahead of the new season. The first player we’ll look at happens to be the cornerstone of the organization, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Let’s dig in.
A big storyline over last off-season is whether or not the first baseman would sign. At a certain point, it looked as if he was destined to hit free agency, as he was locked up before the self-imposed deadline that was the beginning of Spring Training. However, he and the team agreed to a deal in early April, a 14-year deal worth $500 million.
In turn, Guerrero Jr. had a strong regular season and an exceptional postseason. In his 680 plate appearances during the regular season, Guerrero Jr. slashed .292/.381/.467 with 23 home runs, the fewest home runs he’s hit since 2020. However, he finished with a 137 wRC+ and 3.9 fWAR, finishing as a Gold Glove finalist at first base.
Funnily enough, Guerrero Jr. had a rough end to his season, slashing .264/.314/.344 with two home runs in 137 plate appearances, giving him an 83 wRC+. Thankfully, that was overshadowed by his phenomenal postseason, where he slashed .397/.494/.795 with eight home runs in 89 plate appearances, giving him a 241 wRC+.
Those eight home runs gave him the franchise record for the most home runs in a single postseason, but he was also honoured as the American League Championship Series MVP. Hopefully, there are 14 more seasons of Guerrero Jr. at this level, or perhaps even the next level that he’s shown to be capable of reaching.
So what about projections and his role? Well, the latter question is rather easy to answer, as Guerrero Jr. has been incredibly durable throughout his career, playing no fewer than 156 games since 2021. He’ll start most games at first base (last year he played 133 games at the position), with some designated hitting sprinkled in.
Guerrero Jr. is projected to have a strong season next year as well. Fangraphs’ Steamer has him slashing .299/.385/.533 with 34 home runs in 637 plate appearances for a 153 wRC+. You’ll take that kind of production any day of the year.
Although he’s been a top-tier hitter throughout his career, Guerrero Jr. has been a bit inconsistent. His great years in 2021 and 2024 saw him post a wRC+ in the 160 range, while his great years have him in the 130 range. Granted, last season saw him elevate his game during the postseason.
Hopefully, Guerrero Jr. can elevate his game next season as the Jays look to finish the job in 2026.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.