The Toronto Blue Jays have some work to do if they’re to keep their 2025 season alive.
Everything lined up perfectly to start this ALCS for the Blue Jays. They took care of the New York Yankees in four games, receiving a front-row seat to the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers’ 15th-inning Game 5 marathon. They started this series against those M’s at Rogers Centre by claiming the No. 1 seed in the American League.
And yet, it’s Seattle who’ll take a commanding 2-0 lead as the ALCS shifts to the Pacific Northwest this week.
Any advantage Toronto had, of course, has since gone out the window. After being thumped in Game 2, falling 10-3 on Thanksgiving Monday at Rogers Centre, this team is now two losses away from having the juice squeezed out of what’s been a special season for this franchise.
“I think just looking at it as a whole, we’ve got to figure out ways to generate some more offence,” manager John Schneider said post-game. “Give the guys a ton of credit for coming back down three, you tie it. They [Seattle’s offence] just made more swings than us the last two games is kind of what it comes down to.”
This is a dangerous spot to be for the Blue Jays. Of note, teams that take a 2-0 series lead in a best-of-seven are 78-15 all-time. And when it’s been the road club in that scenario, they’ve moved on 25 out of 28 times in post-season history, excluding the 2020 playoffs.
It’ll be an uphill climb from here, one that likely won’t get any easier against the Mariners’ deep pitching staff, which will send George Kirby — who excelled versus Detroit’s lineup in the ALDS, holding them to three runs in two starts, striking out 14 and walking only one — and Luis Castillo in Games 3 and 4, respectively.
If Game 5 is needed, Bryan Woo — Seattle’s best pitcher during the regular season — will likely be looming after throwing live BP on the field ahead of Monday’s contest.
That’ll be a tall challenge for Toronto’s offence, which took a step forward from mustering just one run in Game 1, but ultimately couldn’t overcome a trio of home runs from Julio Rodríguez, Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor (Mississauga, Ont., native).
“Just looking at the difference in these first two [games], slug hasn’t been there for us, has been there for them [Seattle], and you never know when it’s going to turn,” said Schneider on being outhomered 4-1 in the ALCS thus far. “They’ve got a good pitching staff. They’re featuring some good stuff.”
For the most part, it was the Nathan Lukes show in Game 2. Of the six hits that Toronto’s offence generated, half of them came from him in four at-bats. On any night, that’d be an impressive feat. But this performance held extra significance, considering the 31-year-old departed Game 1 after fouling a ball off his right knee.
NATHAN LUKES TIES IT! 3-3!
🎥: Sportsnet | #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/EK7tzfdW6i
— Blue Jays Nation (@thejaysnation) October 13, 2025
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Once his X-rays and CT scan returned negative, though, there was no doubt that he’d be back in the starting lineup against right-hander Logan Gilbert. It’s been a grind to reach this moment. From riding the buses in the minors to waiting for a full-time opportunity in the majors, and now playing an important role in the post-season, he’s been dreaming of this moment his entire career.
So, anytime that he’s able to play through some bumps and bruises, “it’s going to be tough to get him out of the lineup,” as Schneider remarked.
As for the rest of the Blue Jays’ lineup, meanwhile, they went a combined 3-for-36 on Monday. And when you’re pitching staff allows 10 runs — five of which were charged to rookie Trey Yesavage, whose lack of crispness with his pitches and diminished fastball velocity led to an early departure after four-plus innings — that’s typically a recipe for disaster.
There’s still hope for this team. Schneider, more than anyone, will continue to believe in his guys. That’s remained true since Day 1. But they’ve dug themselves a massive hole through two games of this series.
If they’re to bounce back, and they badly need one of those, the best response they could have might be via the long ball — teams who outhomer their opponent are 111-23 since the start of 2022 (marking the beginning of the current 12-team playoff format).
That strategy could be tricky at T-Mobile Park, though, which features the lowest park factor (91, 100 league average) of all 30 major-league ballparks since ’23. It’s the place where fly balls go to die. So, the Blue Jays likely can’t rest their hat on solving their offensive woes by outslugging the Mariners.
Playing their brand of offence hasn’t worked against Seattle’s pitchers, either. They’ve had a tough time stringing hits together and creating traffic on the bases. But that’s usually how things play out this time of year. That’s why the value of home runs increases astronomically in October (just look at how often teams win when they outhomer their opponent).
There’s no easy answer or quick fix to this crisis. It’s going to take all 26 players to prevent the off-season from beginning sooner than anyone wants, which is fitting, honestly, given how this entire year has been a full-team effort.