The Toronto Blue Jays enter New York City looking to put the ALDS on ice.
The Jays took a commanding 2-0 lead at the Rogers Centre and are now entering the jungle that is known as Yankee Stadium. This is the same crowd that has booed the likes of Aaron Judge and other Yankees stars when they aren’t playing well and holds the team accountable when they don’t win. It can be a loud crowd for both the home and away team, and the Jays should expect no different this evening.
It’s safe to say that the Rogers Centre has been the club’s choice stadium this season, which makes sense considering it’s their own confines. However, the stats dramatically favour Toronto when they play on home soil, with the club boasting a 54-27 record in Toronto versus a 40-41 record on the road. Despite playing the same number of games (81), they scored 64 fewer runs playing south of the border and surrendered almost 47 more. Now, we could go through the list and nit-pick to our heart’s content on why the road stats may not favour the Jays compared to their home stats, but there is some truth in regards to how this team has played at home versus on the road.
Same energy. Different eras. pic.twitter.com/GW7pEddOMe
— Blue Jays Nation (@thejaysnation) October 5, 2025
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Per Statcast, the Rogers Centre scored a 103 Park Factor ranking, sitting seventh in the league (and tied with the likes of the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, and Philadelphia Phillies. There was a dramatic increase in home runs (+119 factor) compared to last season (+99), which is well above the 100 average line. Most of the other metrics are within a +/- 6 of that average score (such as 1B, 2B, 3B, walks, strikeouts, HardHit, etc.), but home runs were the biggest X-factor among them all.
This could be attributed to the Jays’ pitchers being near the top of home runs allowed this season (considering the Jays weren’t a powerhouse team by any means), although the Rogers Centre is considered hitter-friendly compared to pitcher-friendly, even after the recent renovations. There were 224 homers hit at the Rogers Centre this season, ranking sixth and just one behind Yankee Stadium.
If we factor in the Jays’ record this season in New York, recent history is not on their side. Of the six games played here this summer, the Jays only won two of them and struggled to produce anything in terms of run support for their starters. One of these days was a doubleheader, of which the Jays lost both games, but overall, Toronto struggled to find success when they faced their AL East rival at their home stadium.
Toronto does have three games to work with to secure a spot in the ALCS, but any Jays fan will tell you ‘the sooner the better’, especially to try and stop any momentum the Yankees could build up on their home turf. The Jays will be looking to continue putting runs on the board, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, George Springer, and Alejandro Kirk leading the way.
Getting to Carlos Rodon early will go a long way for the Jays, and doing so on the road and getting the crowd out of the game will bode well for their chances to advance today.