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Blue Jays: Four series to keep an eye on in July

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Whether you believe in every game being as meaningful as the rest or not, July is going to be a big month for the Blue Jays. They’re wrestling with a handful of teams for a Wild Card spot (and aren’t too far off from the division lead), a couple of guys are in the mix to represent Toronto at the All-Star game, and these next few weeks will serve as a final “audition” of sorts to show the front office if trades need to be made. 

The July slate has a good mix of playoff-worthy and bottom-tier teams, so there’s an opportunity to gain some ground on the teams they are chasing. To their credit, there aren’t too many. At 46-38, the Jays own the second Wild Card spot in the American League, trailing the Rays by a half game for the top spot. Furthermore, they’re only two games behind the Yankees, who currently lead the AL East. 

Now that the standings are getting observed under a smaller lens, here are a few of the biggest series of July for the Blue Jays.

New York Yankees, June 30th-July 3rd & July 21st-23rd

The Blue Jays are good enough to be a Wild Card team, but let’s be honest, they are good enough to have their eyes set on the division crown. Lo and behold, this is the team they’ll have to dethrone for that title. Including last night’s 5-4 win, the Blue Jays are 2-2 against New York this season. Following July, these two teams will meet for just one more series, a three-game tilt at the beginning of September.

It’s hard to talk about the Yankees without starting with Aaron Judge, who, once again, finds himself chasing his second career 60-home run season. On the season, Judge is slashing .354/.458/.717 with a 1.175 OPS, 30 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 58 walks. His entire slash line leads the majors, and his home run total trails only Mariners backstop Cal Raleigh. As is the case with several other ballparks, Rogers Centre has treated Judge well in his career; the 6’7” slugger owns a 1.047 OPS, 19 home runs, and 41 RBIs in 51 career games at Toronto’s home park.

Judge spearheads a Yankees offense that ranks second in the major leagues in home runs, and while Judge has a lot to do with that, five of his teammates have hit at least 11 homers themselves. The Yankees are following the stereotype that with great power comes a great amount of strikeouts, holding the fourth-most strikeouts in the majors. New York’s home run prowess will make for a challenge for a Blue Jays pitching staff that has not shied away from giving up the long ball. It won’t be the only recipe for success, but Blue Jays pitching is going to have to keep the ball in the yard – and have their offense hit some homers of their own – to give themselves an advantage.

Given the first series between these two is a four-gamer, the Blue Jays will be seeing most of New York’s starters. This includes lefty Max Fried, who is quieting some of the skeptics of the eight-year deal to which he signed this past winter. Fried is a legitimate Cy Young award contender to this point in the season after posting a 10-2 record with a 1.92 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9 through 17 starts. The Blue Jays faced Fried back on April 27th, generating five hits, two walks, and an unearned run against him in six innings.

Los Angeles Angels, July 4th-6th

Believe it or not, here comes the Los Angeles Angels, a team taking advantage of several other underperforming American League teams. After sitting on a 12-19 record at the beginning of May, the Angels have corralled a 29-23 record since then, placing them just two and a half games back of the final Wild Card spot. For now, they’re still teetering between contender and pretender, but so are most of the teams that are on their schedule heading into the All-Star break. There’s an opportunity for separation there.

Regarding the Blue Jays, they owe the Angels a couple of times over. The Blue Jays played one of their more forgettable series of the season back in early May in Anaheim, a series that featured a pair of late-inning rallies for the Angels, or a pair of late-inning collapses from the Blue Jays, if you want to look at it that way. No one will be chomping at the bit more than Jays closer Jeff Hoffman, who surrendered six hits and six earned runs in that series, shooting his ERA from 1.10 up to 4.24 at the time.

Much like the Yankees, the Angels have made their living by way of the home run. They’re currently tied for third in the MLB with the Chicago Cubs in home runs, and they have five players with a double-digit home run total. That includes former top prospect Jo Adell, who is in the midst of the best year of his six-year career. Through 76 games, Adell is up to 18 home runs, 43 RBIs, and a 128 wRC+, with all three of those figures and many more slated to be career-bests.

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As it stands right now, the Blue Jays will have the prepare themselves for a pair of soft tossers in Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks. George Springer tagged the former for a two-run blast back in May, and since Anderson is a lefty, you can bet your bottom dollar Ernie Clement will be in the lineup on that day. Aside from the rotation, the Blue Jays can take advantage of an Angels bullpen that boasts a 5.17 ERA, good for 26th in the majors.

San Francisco Giants, July 18th-20th

It’s not often that these two teams face off, but with the Giants in a playoff race of their own, this series will have a heightened level of importance than the series between these two last year. Except for the Colorado Rockies, the NL West didn’t have a lot of separation between its tenants after the first couple of months of the season. Even with the Dodgers building some cushion now, the Giants have stayed afloat and sit just a game and a half out of a Wild Card spot.

If you want a nice “mid-term” for facing opposing pitching staffs, the San Francisco Giants would make a worthy candidate. I mean, you’ve got to be doing something right if the highest ERA on your current staff belongs to Justin Verlander, right? That’s the kind of situation the Giants are right now, and with a rotation led by Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, they have the second-best overall staff ERA and the best bullpen ERA in the majors.

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With some below-average offensive figures, such as their .230 team batting average, the Giants are still searching for answers at the plate. Matt Chapman has missed the past three weeks with a hand injury, Jung Hoo Lee has cooled off after a hot start, and offseason add Willy Adames is still leaving a lot to be desired. That’s what makes the addition of Rafael Devers so important; the ceiling on the batting order is higher now, but is it enough to carry them to a playoff spot in a loaded National League?

Toronto’s offense will have its hands full in this series, but some of the potential pitching matchups should make for quality television, even for baseball fans in general.

Detroit Tigers, July 24th-27th

Although this series is the farthest one away in this article, this will be a great measuring stick for the Blue Jays as they go into the trade deadline. At 53-32, the Tigers are the American League’s best team, and this is the level of team that the Blue Jays will have to go through if they want to advance in October, should they get there.

I mentioned that the Giants have the second-best staff ERA in baseball, but the team they trail resides in the Motor City. Their ace, Tarik Skubal, has a lot to do with that as he is making a case for a second consecutive Cy Young crown. Through 17 starts, Skubal owns a 2.15 ERA, 0.835 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, and an 11.4 K/9. He has four outings in which he’s struck out 10 or more hitters, including a complete-game shutout against the Guardians on May 25th.

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The Blue Jays avoided Skubal back in mid-May when the Tigers visited Toronto for a three-game weekend tilt. Despite the Tigers winning the series, all three games were decided by just one run, with the lone Blue Jays win coming from a walk-off RBI single by Ernie Clement.

Detroit has several players who are conducive to a winning culture, and a career resurgence from Javier Báez has only helped their cause. Whether it’s Riley Greene (19 homers, 63 RBIs, .887 OPS), Kerry Carpenter (16 homers, 32 RBIs), super utility man Zach McKinstry (.283 BA, .807 OPS), or their talented bullpen depth, the Tigers have enough difference makers to maintain their AL-best pace. An “A” series – maybe even an “A+” series – will be necessary from the Blue Jays.