The American League currently runs through the Toronto Blue Jays, and they’d like to keep it that way into October.
For the last few months, the goal has been simple for the Blue Jays: win the AL East and secure a first-round bye. With 16 games remaining, they’re well on their way to checking off both of those boxes. They just have to continue taking care of business the rest of the way, like they did this week by winning two of three in a pivotal series against the Houston Astros.
This team, which hasn’t won a post-season game since 2016, wants no part of a best-of-three wild-card series, and rightly so, considering each of their previous three playoff appearances has ended in a 2-0 defeat in that round.
They’re much better suited for a best-of-five series. Their position-player group is deep enough to handle a longer series, as is their starting pitching for a staff that can roll out Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer (if healthy) across the first three games. After that, any combination of Chris Bassitt and/or José Berríos would do. And there’s Eric Lauer in the bullpen, too.
The Blue Jays control their destiny here. With an 84-62 record, they lead the AL by a half-game over the Central-leading Detroit Tigers and 5.5 games over the Astros and Mariners — both tied atop the West — entering Friday’s slate. If they play slightly above .500 over these final 16 games, it’ll be a done deal. They’ll receive a week-long break before Game 1 of the ALDS.
Playing .500 or worse, however, cracks open the door in the East.
Following yesterday’s win, the Toronto Blue Jays’ magic number to clinch a playoff berth is now 9! pic.twitter.com/sBBiYzzEIP
— Blue Jays Nation (@thejaysnation) September 12, 2025
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Entering Friday’s series opener, Toronto holds a 78.9 per cent chance to win the division per FanGraphs, largely because the number of remaining games, or lack thereof, is the franchise’s best friend right now. Let’s expand on that for a second.
With two-plus weeks left in the regular season and the Blue Jays continuing to stack up wins, it has left a narrow runway for teams like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox — three and 3.5 games back of first, respectively — to make up ground before time runs out. And either would need quite the hot streak to catch them.
For argument’s sake, if Toronto were to finish 9-7 over its final 16 games, the club would end up with 93 wins. Since they own the tiebreaker over New York and Boston, both would have to win 94 games to overtake first place. For that to happen, the Yankees must finish 13-3 while the Red Sox, who have one less game remaining, couldn’t play worse than 13-2.
One advantage for the Blue Jays is that the Yankees and Red Sox are beginning a massive three-game set on Friday, meaning someone has to lose two of their next three contests. As such, the loser of that series would essentially have to play perfect baseball the rest of the way — in Boston’s case, they’d have to win out — to make a run at the division.
All the pressure is on Boston and New York right now. Toronto has done what it needed to. They’ve put themselves in the driver’s seat heading into the homestretch. Sure, if they finish with a losing record over these final 16 games, it’ll create plenty of anguish and anxiety amongst the fan base, and it could put their current standings position at risk. But one of their divisional rivals would need to catch fire for them to be in any serious jeopardy.
The simplest path forward for the Blue Jays is to stay the course. They can’t take their foot off the pedal just yet, with a remaining stretch that includes the Orioles, Rays (twice), Royals and Red Sox. There aren’t any easy matchups left. However, they’re exactly where they need to be.