The Toronto Blue Jays are going to have a busy off-season.
Not even a month into the off-season, they’ve been linked to position players (such as Kyle Tucker), relievers (such as Edwin Díaz), and starting pitchers. Signing a position player seems like a lock; whether it be Bo Bichette, Tucker, or another one, is yet to be determined.
They’ll also sign a pitcher or two this off-season, but the biggest question is whether they should focus on their rotation or their bullpen. Well, that’s what this article will try to answer.
The case to focus on the bullpen
The Blue Jays’ bullpen sat in the middle of the pack last season. In 597.1 innings pitched, they had a 3.98 ERA, good enough for 15th in the league. It was much of the same for their 3.99 FIP, as it ranked tied for the 13th-best in the league. Their 25.3 K% ranked high, fourth in their league, but they also had a 10.3 BB%, seventh-worst in the league.
Jeff Hoffman served as the team’s closer, and it was a mixed bag. In 68 innings pitched, Hoffman had a 4.37 ERA and 4.90 ERA, saving 33 of 40 games. More concerningly, he gave up 15 regular season home runs, as well as one in the postseason; better not to talk about it. Those 15 home runs were the second-most for relievers.
Other notable relievers to pitch for the Blue Jays in 2025 were Braydon Fisher, Brendon Little, Yariel Rodríguez, Yimi García, Louis Varland, and a handful of others.
That said, their bullpen was a sore spot in the playoffs and still nearly were able to win it all. In 81 innings pitched, their bullpen boasted a 4.44 ERA and 5.64 FIP. Only the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds had a worse ERA, while the Blue Jays had the second-worst FIP, and the worst FIP for any team that saw their bullpen pitch more than 10 innings.
The bullpen also gave up a ton of home runs, with the 17 home runs being the most by a wide margin (the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen gave up eight home runs). On a rate basis, their 1.89 HR/9 was the worst in the postseason, slightly better than the Reds’ 1.86 HR/9. The Yankees also had an elevated HR/9 (1.71).
The Blue Jays need a high-leverage reliever, whether it be Díaz, Devin Williams, Robert Suárez, or another reliever. But is it more of a priority than a starter?
The case to focus on the rotation
The answer is no. Their bullpen can certainly be improved, but the Blue Jays’ rotation needs to be improved. Last season, the Jays’ rotation had a 4.34 ERA and 4.46 FIP, ranked 11th-worst and seventh-worst, respectively. The rotation’s 22.2 K% sat middle of the pack (tied for 15th), while they limited batters to a 7.2 BB%, eighth-best.
That said, the area where the Blue Jays’ rotation struggled mightily was with the long ball. Blue Jays’ starters gave up 140 home runs, behind just the historically bad Colorado Rockies (152) and awful Athletics (143). On a rate basis, their 1.50 HR/9 was also third-worst in the league.
Thankfully, their rotation didn’t struggle in the postseason. It had a 3.34 ERA (fifth-best) and 3.84 FIP (eighth-best). Moreover, the rotation had a 26.7 K% and 8.4 BB%, middle of the pack in both categories. They gave up 12 home runs, most in the postseason, but had a respectable 1.21 HR/9, tied for fifth-best.
The worst offender was José Berríos, who gave up 25 home runs in 164 innings pitched. It’s not a surprise that Berríos gave up the most home runs on the team, as his 110 home runs given up since the start of the 2022 season are the most in baseball. What’s more worrisome were the 21 home runs Kevin Gausman gave up, as he’s expected to be towards the top of the Jays’ rotation next season.
Chris Bassitt gave up 22 home runs, Max Scherzer gave up 19 home runs, so did Bowden Francis (for a 2.67 HR/9), while Eric Lauer gave up 14 home runs and Shane Bieber eight home runs. Of the five pitchers listed, only Bieber and potentially Lauer have a spot in the Jays’ rotation next season.
But therein lies the other issue that makes adding to the rotation more important: the Jays’ rotation is barren. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are both free agents, and after 2026, only Trey Yesavage is guaranteed to have a contract. Bieber, Lauer, and Gausman are set to become free agents, while Berríos has a player opt-out after the seasons end.
Sure, Francis could rebound and fill into the Jays’ rotation, the Jays have a few interesting starting prospects, and the Jays could re-sign a handful of these soon-to-be free agent pitchers, but getting a starter or term under term is of utmost importance. Add in the fact that this year’s starting class is stronger than next year’s, Tarik Skubal aside, and signing a starter this season is the Blue Jays’ biggest need.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.