Earlier this week, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Padres had discussed Dylan Cease with multiple AL East teams in addition to the Mets and Cubs. It seems the interest from the AL East has come from every contending club in that division. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees have all checked in with the Friars to express interest.
The Cease rumors have picked up steam over the past few days. It’d be unconventional for a team that presently occupies the National League’s final playoff spot to trade one of its two best healthy starters. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never shied away from big swings, though, and they’re seemingly considering the idea of trading Cease for young talent while reallocating payroll room and prospects to different available starters. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported last night that they’re among the teams that have been in touch with the Marlins regarding Sandy Alcantara, for instance.
Cease is an impending free agent who is playing on a $13.75MM salary. He’s a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer if the Padres hold him all season. As a luxury tax payor, they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2026 draft. That’s worth far less than they’d receive if they traded him, though they need to balance that against the hit it’d deal to the rotation for the stretch run.
The 29-year-old Cease is incredibly durable and has pitched at a top-of-the-rotation level in previous seasons. His near-30% strikeout rate and 97 MPH average fastball still point to that ceiling, but he hasn’t managed particularly strong results this year. He carries a 4.59 earned run average across 113 2/3 innings. Some of that can be traced to a nine-run drubbing at the hands of the A’s in their extremely hitter-friendly park in Sacramento back in April. That’s hardly the sole factor, though. Cease got on a decent run after that outing but has allowed a 5.21 ERA over his most recent seven starts.
Even if this hasn’t been a banner year, Cease’s track record and stuff would make him an extremely desirable trade target. He’d be the best rental rotation arm available, and teams would still view him as a surefire playoff starter. The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are all known to be in the starting pitching market. New York has a strong 1-2 in Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, but Luis Gil is a health question mark and they lost Clarke Schmidt to Tommy John surgery. Boston would certainly benefit from adding another high-end starter to pair with Cease’s former White Sox teammate, Garrett Crochet. Toronto’s veteran-laden rotation lacks a true top-end starter, and they’ve already been tied to some of the higher upside trade candidates like Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller.
The Rays would be the most surprising entrant into this group, though Tampa Bay tends to at least kick the tires on big names even if they don’t often land them. They’re a game and a half back of Boston in the Wild Card race. They’d have little hope of re-signing Cease, and a big push for a rental when they’re a bubble team seems unlikely. Tampa Bay could trade a starter like Taj Bradley or Zack Littell in the coming days; they’re also hopeful of getting Shane McClanahan back in the final two months.
San Diego awaits the return of one of their own top starters. Michael King has been out for more than two months with a nerve injury in his shoulder. He’s targeting a mid-August comeback. As of now, he’d team with Cease, Nick Pivetta and potentially Yu Darvish in a playoff rotation. That’s not a terrible group, but both Cease and King are months from free agency. Pivetta can opt out after next season, and Darvish is approaching his 39th birthday. Even with Joe Musgrove returning from Tommy John surgery next year, the long-term rotation picture is cloudy. They could try to thread the needle of acquiring a controllable arm while shipping Cease out.