The 2025 MLB draft will take place this Sunday and Monday in Atlanta. It’s a big year for the Jays, as they look to use the #8 overall pick to bolster a farm system that’s resurgent but still clearly in the bottom half of the league. Sitting in first place for the moment, it also looks unlikely that they’ll have a premium pick next year and likely that they’ll deal from the current crop to reinforce the current major league squad. As a result, the next few days might represent a short term high point for the depth in the system.
I start with a bit of info then go into the likely options for the Jays at 8. This post is too long (what else is new, Tom__M?), so skip to the bottom if you remember who all this works and just want to see some names.
How to Watch
Day one begins at 6:00pm ET Sunday and will include rounds one to three. ESPN will cover the first round plus compensation picks, with TSN picking up that feed in Canada. For the fellow sickos, MLB Network will have complete coverage of the first night and MLB.com will pick up streaming of rounds 4-20 beginning at 11:30am ET on Monday.
How the Draft Works
Every resident of the US (including Puerto Rico) and Canada who has never signed an MLB or MiLB contract is eligible for the draft the year their high school class graduates, unless they explicitly request to be excluded (which only a handful usually do). If players are chosen, they must sign by the deadline in early August or wait until next year’s draft to be taken again. Players who enrol in an NCAA university must wait at least two years and usually three, depending on their age, to re-enter the draft. Alternatively, they can play independent ball or enrol in junior college and re-enter the next draft. This creates a dynamic where high school players are often the most expensive, as they can credibly threaten to go to school if they don’t like the offer they receive. College juniors also have the leverage of returning to school (which with Name, Image and Likeness sponsorship rights can be lucrative now), but college seniors have little to no leverage and often sign for small bonuses. If a team picks a senior in the top 10 rounds, it’s almost always a ploy to save some money for other uses (though some seniors are serious prospects as well).
Each pick in the top 10 rounds comes with an assigned bonus slot value. The sum of those slots represents a team’s bonus pool. Teams may offer their picks more or less than slot (though if the player completed a physical at the draft combine they must be offered at least 75%). If the player refuses to sign at all the entire bonus slot value is forfeited, so teams have typically spoken with prospects’ representatives before taking them and know what their bonus demands will be. Significant disagreements usually result only when post-draft physicals reveal medical concerns that weren’t previously known. Savings from one pick can be moved to others, but if the team’s total spending on bonuses exceeds their slot they incur penalties. On overages up to 5% less a dollar the penalty is just a tax that many teams, including the Blue Jays, regularly pay. Beyond that, though, the penalties include loss of future picks and teams treat a 5% overage as a hard cap in practice.
Picks outside the first 10 rounds have a set value of $150,000. Teams with leftover bonus pool money can use it to go over that limit, but savings below the threshold aren’t transferable. That creates a dynamic where lots of college seniors and almost no high schoolers go in rounds ~7-10 as teams try to save up some money, then some higher ranked prospects actually wait to go in rounds 10-12 when teams are less worried about a failed signing costing them precious bonus pool space. Teams also often take a flyer on a high end high schooler near round 20 in case they wind up with unexpected savings from, e.g., their first rounder’s medical coming back with problems that lead them to reduce their bonus offer.
The Blue Jays Draft Situation
The Blue Jays lost some ground in the draft lottery, and so will be picking eighth overall in spite of having had the fifth worst record in baseball last season. They also forfeited their second round pick for signing Anthony Santander, who had rejected a qualifying offer from the Orioles, so their only two picks on day one will be eight and eighty one (in the third round). On day two, they pick 112th in the fourth round and have a pick in every subsequent round. As a result of that lost pick they have only the 20th largest total signing bonus pool at $10,314,600.
The Jays have been opportunistic in recent drafts, picking players who fell to them who wouldn’t necessarily have been expected to still be on the board. That’s mostly yielded good early returns (Trey Yesavage and Arjun Nimmala would not slide as far as they did if those drafts were repeated), but sometimes teams that passed were seeing something (it looks like the top four passing on Austin Martin in 2020 had a point). This year they’re in a position to do the same, as 8th is near the back of the consensus top tier of talent and somebody who could have gone higher will be on the board for them. There’s always the possibility of cutting a deal to move some money to later picks, but with 72 selections between their first and second turns that’s a risky move. I think the incentives are for them to just play it straight and take the guy they like at eight.
The Options
It’s never good to get bumped down the draft order, but if you had to then this year is a decent time. There’s not slam dunk number one prospect in the class, but it’s considered to be a deep group of quality talent. The mostly agreed upon number one prospect in the class is third baseman Ethan Holliday, the younger brother of Orioles shortstop Jackson and son of former MLB slugger Matt. Behind him, LSU lefty starter Kade Anderson, Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette, California high school pitcher Seth Hernandez, and Oklahoma high school shortstop Eli Willits, seem like the players who will probably be off the board by the time the Jays pick.
Most reports have linked the Jays to high school shortstops and college pitchers, the two demographics that make up almost all of the top of this year’s board. Most likely, they’ll end up taking a player from the options below, sorted very roughly by my sense of their probability:
- Jojo (Joseph) Parker, a Mississippi high school SS, has one of the best pure hit tools in the class and his 6’2” frame projects for above average power at maturity (although he’ll need to work on his swing to get to it in games). He’s considered less likely to stick at short long term than other options, though. His offensive game is more than strong enough to be a plus regular at second or third if he does have to move. He’s the single name linked most heavily to the Jays, and although he’s a consensus top 10 talent he doesn’t seem to have an obvious home before their pick so he’ll probably be there if they want him.
- FSU LHP Jamie Arnold works from a low slot with a four pitch mix that includes a four seamer around 94mph, a sinker, a big sweeping slider and a plus splitter. His release point is way out on the side, and his arm action gives big left/right movement to all his pitches, which makes for an uncomfortable at bat for hitters. The look is not unlike Chris Sale, although Arnold is five inches shorter and doesn’t quite have Sale’s power stuff. He has a smooth delivery and above average commend. Arnold’s stuff and stock are down very slightly from last year, where he was the presumptive top college player, but he was still extremely effective, looks like a #2/3, and is my personal crush in the draft. He may well not make it to eight, although if one of the top tier college arms falls he seems to be the one.
- Oklahoma RHP Kyson Witherspoon has a deep repertoire, with a big fastball in the mid 90s and feel for a plus breaking ball that he can manipulate to be a cutter, slider or curve anywhere between 80 and 91. All three are weapons. His change up is a work in progress, and he’s previously had some command issues although that was significantly improved in 2025. It’s a bit of a funky delivery, but he’s hit his spots and shown no trouble maintaining his velocity deep into games and over a long season. He’s been steadily trending up as the draft process has gone on, but odds seem good that he’s there for the Jays.
- California High School shortstop Billy Carlson is probably the best defender in the draft, a potential 70 grade glove on the 20-80 scale with a 70 arm to match (he’s touched 97 off a mound and would be a potential day one pick as a pitcher). He’s got good bat speed, but his swing is geared more for line drive sand his raw power isn’t likely to get beyond average. There have been questions about his hit tool but the consensus seems to be that it will also wind up in the average range. Average offence isn’t sexy, but he’s so valuable on defence that he could be a star in the Dansby Swanson mould at that level of production. He seems to have potential landing spots before eight.
- Tennessee LHP Liam Doyle works almost entirely off a four seam fastball that sits in the high 90s and touches 100 with huge vertical ride from a high release point. It was probably the most dominant single pitch in college this season. He lacks a plus secondary, although all of his slider, cutter and split are average or half a tick better, and his command isn’t more than average. He seems likely to be gone by eight, but a couple of rough outings late in the year and concerns about repertoire depth might drop him just a little in a competitive field.
- UC Santa Barbara RHP Tyler Bremner entered the season just behind Arnold, but struggled significantly early in the year. He regained his form and has been working his way back into the first half of the first round. Bremner’s fastball sits in the mid 90s with solid movement characteristics. His best pitch is a 70-grade change up that eats hitters alive. His slider has flashed above average but backed up badly this year and was the source of a lot of his problems. He has above average control, which when paired with two plus or better pitches is enough for a #3 or higher starter, but concerns about repertoire depth and the need to develop a breaking ball he can trust have him a half tier below the elite arms on public draft boards.
- There are also a few wildcard options to keep an eye on. I’ve seen them linked to Arkansas shortstop Wehiwa Aloy, who has produced roughly Bo Bichette shaped offence (power and solid average with no walks) in college and in the Cape Cod summer wood bat league, which is something the Jays have historically seemed to value. He might not be a shortstop long term, but he should be an asset at third if he moves. Auburn catcher Ike Irish gets mentioned everywhere in the 3-15 range (though not specifically with the Jays as far as I’ve seen). He’s got work to do to stick behind the plate, and teams maybe inclined to just move him to the outfield to let his plus hit tool and above average power get to the majors as soon as possible. Texas high school shortstop Kayson Cunningham is undersized at 5’9” and possesses the best pure hit tool in the draft. If he were Domincan, Ross Atkins would have him in a headlock already. He needs to work on his approach (because he has yet to see much he can’t just hit) and his size caps his power and might move him to second eventually. Finally, I haven’t seen them mentioned with Alabama high school shortstop Steele Hall, but he’s been moving up the public draft boards, offers an exciting combination of speed and defence with some feel to hit, and at 17 he’s one of the youngest players in the class, which is another thing the front office has seemed to value.
Tune in on Sunday to watch them select none of the players I mentioned.