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Breaking down the 2026 Blue Jays starting rotation options

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The Toronto Blue Jays have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to the starting rotation.

With Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease leading the way in terms of locks, the Jays’ rotation picture has viable options available to choose from, but no concrete answer as to who goes where.

Rounding out the group is:

  • Trey Yesavage
  • Max Scherzer
  • Cody Ponce
  • Shane Bieber
  • Jose Berrios
  • Eric Lauer
  • Ricky Tiedemann
  • Adam Macko

Getting some early ones out of the way are Macko and Tiedemann, who are the biggest long shots to make the Opening Day rotation of the group assembled.

Macko has already been optioned to Triple-A and will be missing time in Spring Training while he represents Team Canada at the World Baseball Classic. Tiedemann is likely going to be the next one to be sent to the minor league side as he keeps working to get innings under his belt after missing all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Bieber will also be in the mix; however, he likely will start the year on the IL as he ramps up a bit later this spring due to arm fatigue.

With those two out of the way and the Bieber situation also thrown in, that leaves six capable arms who could start games when, realistically, only three spots remain. That could change if manager John Schneider decides to run with a six-man starting crew, which has its own set of pros and cons.

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Running with six starters is tough because if one or two get knocked out early in short stints, the bullpen crew can only carry so much at the end of the day. A six-man rotation is an easy way to get the bullpen in trouble quickly. However, if the starters can do their job on a nightly basis, the Jays can leverage this rotation picture to help limit innings from some different arms.

Yesavage pitched a lot of innings last year in his first pro season, and it seems like the Jays are going to ease him into the regular season to manage his full-season workload. Having him pair with one of either Ponce or Lauer seems like a possibility, and the Jays have worked with this philosophy before to help keep pitchers under a strict limit. Scherzer and Gausman are veterans in their own right, so an extra day of rest could bod well for either starter across a full year despite Scherzer having an innings clause in his contract. Bieber is also battling arm ailments, so he could benefit from another day of rest to start the month once he is ready to go.

Assuming the Jays keep with the current trend and run with five starters, the decision becomes difficult on who remains and who is on the outside looking in.

Six starters are working for three spots over the next month, and it appears that all the arms know that it’s a competition for how the final spots roll out. It gets even more complicated with Scherzer likely being ready for Opening Day, which didn’t seem like a possibility when his signing news was originally announced this past weekend.

Assuming Bieber is out to begin the year for at least 2-4 weeks, if the Jays go with pedigree, then Scherzer has a spot in the rotation locked up. Lauer is likely going to be heading to the bullpen to be the Jays’ long man in the bullpen and the emergency starter, despite his wishes to be a rotation arm.

Two spots remain for three arms.

Berrios, Yesavage, and Ponce will be battling it out, and this could be a competition that goes right to the bitter end of Spring Training. Whether the result is one of the three heads to the bullpen and the other two head to the rotation, or potentially Yesavage starts in Buffalo to control his innings, someone is going to end up with some sour feelings – they’re all professionals at the end of the day, but the competitor in each is to start games, something Schneider has echoed. Yesavage starting the campaign in Triple-A seems less than likely after such an impressive 2025 cup of coffee in the big leagues, but the long-term goal is in play here, especially with Bieber likely out for just a short period of time. That complicates matters even more, considering one of the two in the rotation will have to move somewhere when he returns, whether that’s to the relief corps or elsewhere.

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Overall, it seems like one or two arms might need to be moved before Opening Day, with the likely candidates being Berrios and/or Lauer.

Lauer would likely benefit personally from a change of scenery, heading to another team where he could be a starter before a contract year next winter. The Jays might not be so keen on this, considering he is such a versatile pitcher and having him around lurking in the bullpen is needed insurance, something the club depended on last year.

Berrios has a difficult contract in both value and term-wise, and is coming off a tough 2025 season, one that ended with him hitting the IL for the first time in his career and skipping out on the World Series. The latter shouldn’t be an issue for the club at this point as the hashing out process has likely been dealt with internally, but considering the Jays were open to moving the Puerto Rican product this offseason with no trade materializing, there’s no reason those conversations can’t pick up again.

The biggest question the Jays’ front office will need to answer is how much rotation depth is enough, and whether they believe they can leverage some of it into something else for the organization. The worst thing you can do is trade away some arms and then need them shortly into the season, but the Jays could be risky and try their luck while keeping Macko and Tiedemann at the ready if things get desperate.

It’s too early to tell who will start the year in the rotation versus the bullpen, but I would think that Gausman, Cease, and Scherzer have more of an inside track to securing a spot, as well as Bieber when he returns. Who fills in the remaining spot or two is still very much up in the air, and the club will need to figure out some sort of solution before Opening Day. It’s a good problem to have at the end of the day, but one that will need to be sorted out in the coming weeks.

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