The Toronto Blue Jays have a Bowden Francis problem on their hands following their reported signing of Dylan Cease — and there’s no clear solution.
Francis struggled mightily in 2025. The right-hander recorded a 6.05 ERA and 1.53 WHIP across 14 ineffective starts before landing on the injured list with a right shoulder impingement in June that sidelined him until the end of the year.
Much of the damage done against Francis came via the long ball; he allowed a staggering 19 home runs in just 64 innings pitched. His underlying metrics weren’t pretty, either. He ranked in the third percentile or worse among qualified pitchers in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. His walk rate jumped to 9.4% while his K-rate fell to just 18.8%.
Now, a year removed from seemingly having a rotation spot locked down after a breakout back-half 2024 campaign, Francis is on the outside looking in with no clear path forward — and the Blue Jays shouldn’t force opportunities for him next season.
The club’s expected starting rotation of Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, and José Berríos should be one of the league’s deepest groups. Eric Lauer has earned the right to be the next man up should any of them suffer an injury, and the club also boasts some depth in Adam Macko and Ricky Tiedemann waiting in the wings as well.
Having Francis start the season in Triple-A Buffalo probably makes the most sense if the organization still sees him as a starting pitcher long-term. Relegating him to mop-up duty out of the MLB bullpen won’t afford him the opportunities he needs to get back on track. Deploying Francis as part of a six-man rotation, meanwhile, would unnecessarily disrupt the routines and rhythms of the club’s established starting pitchers. He also has the minor league option at his disposal, which is a benefit for the club.
Ultimately, Francis may have simply fallen out of the Blue Jays’ plans given their realistic World Series aspirations. It’s a results-driven business; there won’t be a long leash for players who aren’t contributing to winning baseball games.
Francis appears to have a serious uphill climb ahead of him in 2026 — but last year’s Blue Jays were proof that the unexpected is always possible.
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