Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

After falling painfully short in the World Series, the Blue Jays now face the challenge of keeping their core roster together, starting with the possible departure of cornerstone Bo Bichette.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B: $480MM through 2039
• Andres Gimenez, 2B/SS: $86.5MM through 2029 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2030)
• Jose Berrios, SP: $66MM through 2028 (Berrios can opt out of contract after the 2026 season)
• Anthony Santander, OF/DH: $65.5MM through 2029 (includes $5MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2030; Santander has opt-out after 2027 season that Jays can override by increasing salary and exercising 2030 option)
• Alejandro Kirk, C: $52MM through 2030
• Kevin Gausman, SP: $23MM through 2026
• George Springer, OF/DH: $22.5MM through 2026
• Jeff Hoffman, RP: $22MM through 2027
• Yariel Rodriguez, RP: $17MM through 2028 (includes $6MM player option for 2028; Blue Jays have $10MM club option if Rodriguez declines)
• Myles Straw, OF: $8.75MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Blue Jays also have $8.5MM club option for 2028 with $500K buyout; Guardians paying $2.75MM to Jays as condition of January 2025 trade)
• Yimi Garcia, RP: $7.5MM through 2026

Option Decisions

• Shane Bieber, SP: $16MM player option for 2026 ($4MM buyout)

2026 financial commitments (assuming Bieber declines player option): $164.75MM
Total future commitments (assuming Bieber declines player option): $850.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Daulton Varsho (5.128): $9.7MM
• Eric Lauer (5.091): $4.4MM
• Dillon Tate (5.018): $1.7MM
• Nick Sandlin (4.157): $2MM
• Ernie Clement (3.168): $4.3MM
• Ryan Burr (3.109): $800K
• Tyler Heineman (3.066): $1MM
• Non-tender candidates: Tate, Burr

Free Agents

• Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Seranthony Dominguez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ty France

As devastating as Game 7 was for the Blue Jays and their fans, the rest of the 2025 season was an unqualified success.  The club won its first AL East title in 10 years and its first AL pennant since 1993, in a stunning turn-around for a club that finished in last place in the AL East just a season ago (and held a modest 26-28 record through the first two months of 2025).

Just about every single Toronto hitter improved on their 2024 numbers, turning the Jays into a dangerous all-around offense fueled by putting the ball in play, high-volume and quality contact, and timely (if not always consistent) power.  Bichette was a key element of this formula.  After struggling with injuries and inconsistent play since August 2023, he returned to his old self in 2025 by hitting .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs over 628 plate appearances.  Those numbers likely would’ve been even stronger if Bichette wasn’t sidelined by a left PCL sprain in early September, which kept him out of action until the World Series.  Even while clearly limited in terms of running or normal flexibility, Bichette still hit .348/.444/.478 over 27 PA during the Fall Classic.

Bichette has stated that he won’t need a knee surgery this winter, and while we could perhaps wait a few days to make sure Bichette wasn’t just trying to tough it out for the postseason, it would seem like his PCL sprain shouldn’t leave him any worse for wear for Opening Day 2026.  That means the Blue Jays and other suitors will probably feel comfortable in bidding normally on the All-Star now that he’s hitting the open market.

There has been speculation for years about how the Jays would approach the free agencies of Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during the 2025-26 offseason, and the Guerrero debate was firmly answered last April when the two sides agreed to a 14-year, $500MM extension.  With such a big commitment made to Guerrero, of course, that only raised fresh questions about Bichette’s future.  Especially when coming off a down year in 2024 and with the Jays acquiring Andres Gimenez last winter, it seemed like Toronto was preparing itself to let Bichette walk.

The team’s magical run in 2025 may have changed the equation.  Ownership and the front office may have some natural inclination to try and run it back (as much as possible) with a roster that came two outs away from a championship.  The Rogers Communications ownership group is very wealthy and has been comfortable in taking the Blue Jays’ payroll into luxury tax territory in both 2023 and 2025, including the team’s record high payroll and tax number this season.  (Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates payroll at $254MM and the tax number at roughly $278.8MM, while RosterResource estimates a $257.8MM payroll and a $282.7MM tax number that would put the Jays over the third penalty tier.)

Would the Blue Jays be willing to pay something in the $150MM-$200MM range on Bichette and add yet another long-term deal to a ledger that already has over $850MM in future commitments?  Guerrero alone takes up a big chunk of that $850MM-plus figure, but the Blue Jays also have to factor in other potential expenditures.  As we’ll explore later in the outlook, Toronto will again need to make some investments in its rotation, and Kevin Gausman is a free agent next winter.  Extending George Springer didn’t seem like a consideration a year ago, but after Springer’s big comeback season, the Jays must now at least be thinking about retaining the veteran when his current deal is up next winter.