Part 2: The Outfield
On Monday, I reviewed the one stat I’d picked for each Blue Jays infielder to tell the story of their season to date. Today, the outfield.
George Springer: 92.6mph average exit velocity. Update: 87.8mph since May 23. The Springaissance in April was driven by George selling out to hit the ball hard and to elevate. He’s still doing the latter, with a 16 degree launch angle over the last quarter, and he’s still barreling the ball up at a very good 12.8% rate, but his average impact has dropped off considerably. The good news is that this has come with a drop off in his strikeout rate, to 13.7%. He’s been a 133 wRC+ hitter over the last quarter, in line with his season rate, so the overall package is working. It’s a weird comeback, but a strong one, and it’s a major contributor to the Jays’ strong first half.
Daulton Varsho: 113.9 max exit velocity. Update: 105.3 since May 23. An incomplete grade for Daulton, as he played just 7 games and took only 29 PA after the last write-up before getting injured. We’ll have to wait to see whether his increased power continues when he returns.
Myles Straw: Update: 48 wRC+ since May 23. Straw looked down, realized he had been running on air, and tumbled into the canyon that is not being an MLB calibre hitter.
Addison Barger: 80% contact rate. Update: 74.0% since May 23. I noted in May that while Barger was known to be a slugger, he was really impressing with his knack for contact. That’s regressed some, although 74% is only a couple ticks below league average and still absolutely respectable for a player who hits it as hard as he does when he connects. He’s run a .255/.317/.500 line over the last quarter, and that looks entirely sustainable, with even some room for growth in the OBP as his keen eye keeps translating into more walks. Barger looks like a key part of the Jays lineup for years to come.
Nathan Lukes: 92.6% zone contact rate. Update: 93.5% since May 23. Lukes is still making loads of contact and still taking loads of walks (11.4% in the last quarter). Unfortunately, what were line drives in April have been hammered into the ground in June, with his -1.2 degree launch angle the lowest among regulars on the team by a wide margin. That’s both hurt this average and completely eliminated any power production, cratering his overall line to 40% below average. The ingredients for a high quality OBP-driven fourth outfielder profile are all still there, he just needs to re-calibrate his swing to get just a little bit of loft back.
Alan Roden: 84.6mph average exit velocity. Update: 88.1mph since May 23. Roden hasn’t hardly played, registering just 27 PA over the last quarter in the big leagues. He’s started to hit it a little harder in the sample we’ve seen, though, and his power production while down in Buffalo has been strong. Translating his AAA production to the majors is still a work in progress, but it’s encouraging that he’s shown some signs of recovering from a rough start.
Will Wagner: 2.2% barrel rate. Incomplete. Wagner had been demoted when the last article was written. Since then he’s spent about three weeks on the minor league IL, returned and hit well if not spectacularly in Buffalo, and on Saturday he was brought back to Toronto. He’s only had two PAs since, so it’s too early to assess whether he’s rediscovered his form from last fall.
Anthony Santander: 19.1% pulled ground ball rate. Incomplete. Another incomplete grade, as Santander has been on the IL with a shoulder injury since May 29th. On the one hand, a shoulder issue would explain why he wasn’t succeeding in lifting the ball like he usually does, which is good because when he gets healthy his production should bounce back. On the other, the ‘when he gets healthy’ bit is unclear, as he has yet to start hitting at the complex, and shoulder stuff is often complicated and lingering.
New Addition: Jonatan Clase: 13.2% line drive rate. Since Clase started to pop as a prospect in 2022, he’s run high batting averages on balls in play thanks to line drive rates consistently in the mid-high 20s percent range. That allows his excellent speed to play and helped to prop up his batting averages in spite of high-ish strikeout rates and below average home run power. In his two stints in the majors so far, though, he hasn’t made that same quality of contact. He’s taking his walks and keeping his strikeouts in an acceptable range, but he’ll need to up the quality of his contact if he’s going to carve out a long term MLB role. The good news is that batted ball stats are highly variable, and this is as likely to be a blip as a sign that he has real trouble squaring up MLB pitching.