Part 3: The Rotation
Picking up on the pieces I did last week, I’m continuing my review of the Blue Jays’ roster through the len of one stat that tells the story of each player’s season. Today it’s the rotation’s turn.
Chris Bassitt: 45.2% of pitches on the edge of the zone. Update: No change since May 26th. Bassitt got bombed last Saturday in Boston, which roughs up his line over the last quarter season (5.82 ERA, 4.38 FIP), but his formula has stayed constant from what I observed early in the year: he’s throwing less hard but painting the corners more consistently. The approach hasn’t continued the excellent results it showed early, but his 3.86 xERA suggests that he deserves a little better than his numbers right now. Overall, it still looks like his approach is working.
Kevin Gausman: 32.2 inches of vertical break on splitters. Update: He is now averaging 33.7 inches of vertical break. As I wrote last time, Gausman’s regression last season could be traced to his splitter losing some bite and his fastball losing a little zip. Both have corrected this season. He’s not racking up the K’s like he has in the past (though as I write this he’s punched out six Angels through four innings on Sunday afternoon), and his 4.18 ERA is his worst in several years, but his underlying stats suggest that he’s doing better work than he was last season. As with Bassitt, I’d expect the top line numbers to be a bit better going forward.
Jose Berrios: 9.6% walk rate. Update: 6.7% since May 26th. Berrios’ slow start was driven by some command slippage. He wasn’t hitting the zone quite as much and was drawing fewer chases, which put him behind. As a relatively low-K pitcher, he needs to control the free passes to keep the bases clear and make his pitch-to-weak-contact approach work. Sure enough, he dialed in his command, cut the walk rate, and has been the Jays’ best pitcher over the last six weeks. He’s eaten 42.1 innings over 7 starts with a 2.76 ERA and a 3.16 FIP.
Bowden Francis: .276 BABIP. Update: 3.16 BABIP. This is really an incomplete. Francis got bombed in four starts after I pulled the data last time, with a 7.90 ERA in 13.2 innings, before hitting the IL with a shoulder problem. He’s only a week into a throwing program, and with Max Scherzer potentially back and Eric Lauer doing his thing (see below) it’s likely to be a while before we see him in Toronto again. Hopefully a reset in the minors helps him rediscover his form from last season.
Eric Lauer: 77.4% contact rate. Update: 80.5% contact allowed since May 26th. There’s been some regression in Lauer’s contact rate allowed, but he’s still striking out batters at a healthy 25% rate while limiting walks. The difference seems to be that he’s gotten ultra-aggressive, with over 58% of his pitches landing in the zone (league average is 52%). That’s hurting his contact rate (hitters make more contact in the zone, as you’d expect), but it’s also getting him called strikes and keeping him out of deep counts. I’m still not sure he’s more than a solid sixth starter going forward given the mediocrity of his raw stuff, but 51 innings of 2.65 ERA ball is already vastly more than they had any right to expect out of him this season. The Jays should be elated with what Lauer’s giving them, and if he can continue to fill in credibly in the swing man/fifth starter role he’s inhabiting right now that would do a lot to stabilize the team.
Jose Urena: 74.6% in-zone swing rate. Update: no longer a Blue Jay. Thankfully.
Paxton Schultz: 129 Fastball Location+. Update: minimal change. Schultz has gotten roughed up a little over his last eight appearances (two starts), posting a 6.23 ERA. His 4.09 FIP suggests his process is still working fairly well, though, and the overall story hasn’t changed. He has fairly vanilla stuff, but his ability to spot his fastball up in the zone gets him some swing and miss and a decent amount of non-threatening fly ball contact. His recent appearances show the danger that can arise when hitters tag those high flies, with a couple of home runs and a .375 BABIP against, but he should be all right if he keeps up what’s worked for him.
New Addition: Max Scherzer: 59 batters faced. This one is all about health. Scherzer has faced 59 batters in three starts since his return on the 25th. He reported significant inflammation in his injured thumb after his appearance on Friday and is currently day to day. Scherzer looks like he’ll be fine if he can pitch, but it remains to be seen how much volume he’ll actually be able to give the Jays in what is increasingly clearly the final season of his Hall of Fame career.