Part 4: The Bullpen
Over the past week and a bit, I’ve been reviewing the series I started in June, trying to tell the story of each Blue Jay player’s season through one important stat. Today I wrap up with a review of the bullpen.
Nick Sandlin: 28.4% fastball usage (sinker plus four seam). Update: 36.8% since May 26th. I noted that before he got hurt, Sandlin had lost about 1.5mph off his fastball, and as a result was de-emphasizing it in favour of pitching heavily off his slider. Since his return a couple of weeks ago, the story basically remains the same. He’s thrown fewer splitters and more fastballs, but he’s still using the slider just under half the time. He hasn’t been looking good so far, with just five strikeouts against four walks and five hits in 7.2 innings, but it’s too early to really judge how it’s going to work going forward.
Braydon Fisher: 21.9 inches of vertical separation between his slider and curveball, with just 4.5mph velocity separation. Update: no change. This one isn’t really a thing to track so much as an observation of how Fisher goes about his business. He lives primarily off his two breaking balls, which confuse batters by coming in at similar speeds but breaking in sharply different ways. His fastball, which sits 96 with strong vertical carry, works like most pitchers’ breaking balls as a surprise change of pace. It keeps working, as Fisher has posted a team-best 31.3% K rate over the past six weeks and a 3.26 ERA that looks entirely sustainable.
Yimi Garcia: 12% walk rate. Update: incomplete. Yimi pitched only one inning following his return from the IL with shoulder issues before spraining his ankle and going right back on the shelf.
Mason Fluharty: 25.9% hard hit rate against, 5th lowest in the league. Update: 47.4% since May 26th. Batters caught on to Fluharty’s approach somewhat and started hitting him pretty hard. His ERA since late May is 8.31, and he was optioned to AAA on Wednesday to try to recover his form. A solid 73% contact rate against over that span and 18 strikeouts on 64 batters faced suggests that he’s still able to fool MLB hitters, so there’s reason to expect he can return to effectiveness, but tweaks will have to be made to cut down on walks and hard contact.
Chad Green: 16.7% barrel rate. Update: 13.5% since May 26th. Green is still getting whacked, so much so that his 4.60 ERA over the past few weeks looks quite lucky. He’s not missing bats at all either. Barring an adjustment that unlocks something new, Green is looking like he might be toast.
Brendon Little: 53.5% in-zone swing rate, lowest in the league. Update: 49.3% since May 26th. Hitters have stopped chasing Little out of the zone (25.9%), which has blown up his walk rate to 22% over the last six weeks. Normally that’d be a disaster, and it isn’t good, but he’s weathered it because he still gets so many strikes looking and because hitters still can’t do anything dangerous with his turbo sinker when they do swing. It’s a weird way for a pitcher to be effective, but it keeps working.
Erik Swanson: 2.0 IP. Update: 3.1 more IP since. Swanson continued to be inconsistently available and ineffective, and ultimately the Jays decided to release him on June 23rd. It’s an unfortunate end to a Jays tenure that started extremely well two years ago.
Yariel Rodriguez: 96.0mph. Update: 96.4mph since May 26th. As before, Y-Rod looks like a guy whose whole deal works better in the bullpen. His pitches all gain some power and movement, and his less than pinpoint command is less of a hindrance. He’s not as good as the 1.89 ERA he’s posted since late May, but he looks like a high quality middle reliever/multiple inning guy.
Jeff Hoffman: 24% home run per fly ball rate. Update: 13.6% since May 26th. Hoffman’s peripherals have actually fallen off a bit lately, but he’s getting some more reasonable luck on balls staying in the park and it’s resulted in a 2.25 ERA over his last 16.0 innings. He’s 12 for 13 in save opportunities in that span. Basically it looks like I was right early in the season: (*in Dennis Green Voice*) he is who we thought he was. Only four other relievers have struck out more than 50 batters while walking 10 or fewer. The wonkiness in his ERA and save rate for the season look like luck, the steadier metrics look like a top end closer.