We’re into the final weeks of the season now, but a handful of postseason races are still up for grabs. Perhaps the most competitive division at this point is the AL East, which is the only division where three teams still have at least a 10% chance of taking home the crown according to Fangraphs. Who will ultimately emerge victorious? Here’s a look at each of the three teams, listed in order of their winning percentage entering play today:
Toronto Blue Jays (79-59)
The Jays took the lead in the division on July 3 and haven’t relinquished it since. It’s not hard to see why they’ve been successful. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t having the sort of superlative, MVP-level campaign he posted in 2024 but remains an anchor for the lineup with 21 homers, 30 doubles, and a .383 on-base percentage. George Springer has enjoyed a resurgent season at the age of 35, slashing an outstanding .300/.391/.533 in 116 games. Bo Bichette (130 wRC+) is back to his normal self after last year’s injury-ruined season. Alejandro Kirk (118 wRC+) is making good on his extension with the club by putting up his best season since 2022. Daulton Varsho has 16 homers in 49 games despite dealing with injuries, and even less-established hitters like Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, and Davis Schneider have put up strong numbers at the dish.
While so much has gone right for the Jays on offense, it must be noted that things haven’t gone as well when it comes to pitching. Kevin Gausman looks like the steady and playoff-caliber veteran he’s been for years now, but the rest of the rotation comes with questions. Toronto was reaping the benefits of Max Scherzer turning back the clock for a few weeks, but the future Hall of Famer just delivered back-to-back clunkers against the Twins and Brewers. Eric Lauer was pitching well but was sent to the bullpen after posting a 5.30 ERA in August. Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios are stable veterans, but they fit better at the back of the rotation than starting Games 2 and 3 of a playoff series. The bullpen has struggled somewhat as well, with closer Jeff Hoffman scuffling to a 5.02 ERA on the season and a 5.32 ERA since the start of July. Those pitching woes have led the Jays’ lead in the division to slip from five games a week ago to 2.5 games. Will they be able to stop the bleeding and secure a division title?
New York Yankees (76-61)
Just a couple of weeks ago, the Bronx Bombers looked to be in a more dire position after losing five straight to the Marlins and Rangers before dropping three games in a row to the Red Sox. They rebounded from those losses to Boston by picking up the final game of that series, however, and that win started a seven-game streak that only just ended with a close loss to the White Sox over the weekend. While nice performances from players like Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been helpful for the Yanks this season, their success can be overwhelmingly attributed to Aaron Judge.
The reigning AL MVP has put together another season for the ages (196 wRC+), and it’s largely thanks to him that the club has been able to hang in the postseason race despite a disappointing season from Anthony Volpe and Paul Goldschmidt’s second-half struggles. Of course, Judge has been recovering from a flexor strain that’s seemingly impacted him at the plate and kept him from playing the field. That’s pushed Giancarlo Stanton’s strong bat out of the lineup on some days and forced his subpar glove into the outfield on the rest. A leaky bullpen hasn’t helped, though the starting rotation is looking better now that Max Fried appears to be getting back on track after a rough patch. One other thing working in New York’s favor is the schedule; they’ll face the last-place Orioles and White Sox in their final 10 games of the season.
Boston Red Sox (77-62)
The Red Sox have worked their way back from the malaise they faced towards the end of the Rafael Devers era to make themselves legitimate playoff contenders. Unlike the other two AL East clubs, it’s been the pitching leading the way. Garrett Crochet is in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball this year, and both Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have looked the part of playoff starters. It’s arguably been a career year for veteran closer Aroldis Chapman, and Garrett Whitlock has excelled in a setup role. Top prospect Payton Tolle has been called up for the stretch.
While Boston’s pitching staff is impressive, they’re held back a bit by an offense that doesn’t quite measure up. Roman Anthony already looks like a star, but the rest of the lineup has lacked consistency. Alex Bregman is slumping since the start of August, Wilyer Abreu is on the injured list, and Ceddanne Rafaela has struggled badly since the All-Star break. Trevor Story started slow but has been great since June. Romy Gonzalez has tattooed lefties but been sub-par versus righties. Boston’s 24-17 record since the All-Star break is still encouraging though, and if Abreu comes back healthy and/or Bregman turns things around, the lineup would look more formidable.
Each of the three remaining contenders for the AL East title have one series against each other left in September. Who do MLBTR readers think will come out on top? Will the Blue Jays hold on despite their pitching woes? Can Judge lead the Yankees back to the top of the division? Or will the Red Sox offense turn things around to support their excellent pitching? Have your say in the poll below:
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