The Blue Jays have been the most active team of the winter, making splashes in the rotation (Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce), bullpen (Tyler Rogers), and mostly recently the lineup with their signing of third baseman Kazuma Okamoto. While Okamoto has a chance to be an impact bat, given his track record as one of the best hitters in NPB, he’s not on the same level as a few other hitters to whom Toronto has been linked. On one level or another, the Jays have been connected to most of the top free agent hitters this offseason. Most recently, reports have centered around three names: outfielder Kyle Tucker, infielder Bo Bichette, and third baseman Alex Bregman.
Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported yesterday that while the Blue Jays could add more from here, that might require the team to subtract payroll elsewhere on the roster. Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers of ESPN wrote this morning that the Okamoto signing does not take the Jays out of the running for either Tucker or Bichette.
It’s been relatively quiet on the Tucker front, though Rogers and Olney suggest he has both short- and long-term possibilities in front of him. Whichever route he takes, the annual commitment will be significant. Toronto has expressed a willingness to deal Jose Berrios this winter, but his contract is underwater. They wouldn’t be able to shed the full freight of the $66MM he’s still owed. Anthony Santander is making significant money as well, but he’d be even more difficult to trade coming off of a career-worst season where he was limited to 54 games by injuries; Santander also posted a .175/.271/.294 slash (61 wRC+) when healthy enough to play.
Neither Berrios nor Santander would subtract enough payroll to fully offset the addition of a Tucker, Bichette or Bregman. Berrios is owed $18MM in 2026 and has matching $24MM salaries in 2027-28. Santander is owed $16.5MM in 2026 and ’27, $14.75MM in ’28 and $12.75MM in ’29. A hefty $10MM of his salary is deferred in each of those seasons.
If the Blue Jays are truly nearing maximum capacity when it comes to payroll, it’s hard to imagine them coming out on top for one of those star free agents. The Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, and Mets are among the other big market clubs to have been connected to at least one of those free agents in some capacity.
Of course, it’s possible the Jays don’t feel much need to subtract salary at all. Their $279MM payroll and $308MM of luxury tax obligations (according to RosterResource) are franchise records that thrust them into the top bracket of luxury penalization, but the Jays have a great deal of money coming off the books after this season. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho, Yimi Garcia, and Eric Lauer are all set to reach free agency after 2026. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Varsho and Lauer for a combined $14.1MM in arbitration this year, while the other four will combine for $70.5MM. That’s nearly $85MM in salary set to come off the books, and declining Myles Straw’s club option for next season would push that figure even higher.
Some of that money would surely need to be re-invested in the roster to replace the departing veterans, but next year’s free agent class doesn’t figure to boast a transformational, middle-of-the-order bat on the level of Tucker or even Bichette. Seiya Suzuki, Randy Arozarena, Nico Hoerner, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are among the top position players set to reach free agency next winter. While all are talented players in their own rights, none is a surefire perennial All-Star like the top bats of this winter’s class. That could make it prudent for the Jays to throw caution to the wind this year and do some of next offseason’s shopping a year early.
How do MLBTR readers expect the Jays to proceed this winter? Will they come away with another top free agent before Opening Day, or will Okamoto be their top addition on offense? Have your say in the poll below:
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