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Putting together a draft plan for the Toronto Blue Jays first-round selection

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The Toronto Blue Jays will select eighth overall at the 2025 MLB Draft, their highest selection since drafting Austin Martin in the fifth spot of the condensed format in 2020. With $10,314,600 to spend from July 13th through 14th, the club will have 19 picks to use the funds across the board, with the Jays surrendering their second-round draft pick as compensation for signing Anthony Santander this past winter, who was tied to a qualifying offer from the Orioles. The eighth pick alone is slotted at $6.813 million, although fans who follow the draft know that this can be fluid depending on the player selected.

This will also be the first draft with Marc Tramuta leading the charge as amateur scouting director. Shane Farrell departed for the Detroit Tigers this past winter, and the Jays promoted Tramuta internally, with the executive joining Toronto back in 2023 after an 11-year stint with the New York Mets organization in various scouting positions.

Farm system overview

The Toronto Blue Jays entered the year with a farm system ranking towards the bottom of the depth charts. Injuries to the likes of Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera, and Landen Maroudis hurt the rankings, and Orelvis Martinez didn’t graduate from the list due to his suspension. As well, the Jays hardly had any players from the top of the 2024 draft class play last season, so any potential benefits from the ‘cup of coffee’ were lost in terms of farm system rankings. A few top names have struggled to live up to expectations, and the trading away of some top names doesn’t help the cause either.

However, the 2025 season has been stellar for the Jays’ system in terms of individual performance. The trio of Trey Yesavage, Khal Stephen, and Gage Stanifer are dominating at multiple levels, Juaron Watts-Brown has been a strikeout machine, 2023-first-rounder Arjun Nimmala is a young power bat launching the ball in Vancouver, Johnny King is already in Dunedin after outclassing FCL bats, and Maroudis is back on the mound following his injury stint. Things are trending in the right direction for the Jays, and this should be reflected in the newest farm system update. Adding a player at eighth overall will surely help those rankings, similar to what the team experienced last season with Yesavage’s addition following the 2024 draft.

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Looking across the system, the Jays have a lot of players who are occupying the high-A/double-A side of the game. This is especially apparent on the pitching side, with some Vancouver Canadians looking to move to New Hampshire shortly. With the draft also comes the unfortunate side where players within the farm system will be given their walking papers, but this may clear up some of the glut for arms or bats knocking on the door for a promotion at the mid-level.

If the Jays have a weakness in the system, it is in the catching department. Not a single backstop is featured on the top 30 prospect list for Toronto, and the team doesn’t boast a blue-chip catcher in triple-A or double-A. Edward Duran down in single-A Dunedin has been the brightest of the bunch, but he’s years away from any potential big league stage. Aaron Parker in high-A Vancouver is another name to keep on the radar.

Draft board overview

As many of us know, the MLB Draft is usually anarchy. No team ever follows a set plan, and things can go off the rails in a hurry, with teams selecting players off the board or with high school players sliding down (and eventually off) the rankings based on their post-secondary aspirations. Some teams have the bonus pool in mind, looking at how to maximize their money across multiple rounds of the draft. The Jays have done this over the past few years, finding ways to sign players underslot in some areas of the draft and using those funds to convince other players to turn pro (Maroudis, Watts-Brown, and Tucker Toman are recent over-slot examples).

This year, the draft board is dominated by prep infielders, with Ethan Holliday – brother of Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday – leading the charge at #1. He is followed by Eli Willits, JoJo Parker, Billy Carlson, Steele Hall, Daniel Pierce, Kayson Cunningham, Gavin Fien, Xavier Neyens, Josh Hammond, and Sean Gamble. Prep pitchers are underrepresented this time around, with Seth Hernandez the clear-cut top prep arm in 2025. Other names to consider include Kruz Schoolcraft, Jack Bauer, Aaron Watson, and Matthew Fisher, but a majority of the arms are slotting around the round two to four areas at this time.

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With so many prep stars at the top of the rankings, there is a high chance that teams may go a bit further down the board in terms of players they believe they can mould and develop because of their early age into pro baseball, which leads to various names falling from the top rankings and more into the eighth spot where the Jays stand. For example, both Nimmala and Yesavage were ranked higher than where the Jays selected them in their respective draft years, but were available when the Jays stepped up to the podium. This also depends on whether each player chooses to turn pro and forego their commitment to post-secondary, but with a selection so high, teams will likely already know the player’s intention (and likely their dollar figure) to join the organization versus playing at the college level.

Outside of the prep infielders, there are a handful of college arms near the top of the rankings, with LSU’s Kade Anderson leading the charge following his dominant performance at the College World Series final. Jamie Arnold (Florida State), Liam Doyle (Tennessee), and Kyson Witherspoon (Oklahoma) round out the rest. There are also some key college position players in the mix, such as shortstops Aiva Arquette and Wehiwa Aloy, outfielder Brendan Summerhill, and catcher/outfielder Ike Irish likely going in the first round.

How things could shake out – draft plan

Looking at the draft board and all the volatility, there is a good chance the Blue Jays may be in a position to draft the best player available when their time comes at #8. This will heavily depend on whether the club is comfortable drafting a prep bat, as there will likely be plenty available to draft when they are on the clock, or whether they want to pivot to a college arm, even if that player isn’t the top-ranked player at the time of drafting. All it takes is for a team ahead of the Blue Jays to cause a domino effect, and while the likes of Holliday, Anderson, and Arnold likely aren’t around when Toronto selects, there is a chance that some other high-profile names slotted more toward the top five in rankings are still lurking.

If the Jays want a prep bat, the name that keeps popping up on the draft boards and mock drafts of analysts across the internet is Billy Carlson. If the Jays are interested in a prep arm, Kyson Witherspoon is a popular name in this spot. Some also believe that the Blue Jays are Seth Hernandez’s floor if he does wind up still on the board when Toronto steps up, although they might have some animosity based on how Brandon Barriera has started his pro career since being the 2022 first-round selection, with injuries limiting him to just 25 innings through his pro career. If Ike Irish is around and the Jays are keen on his catching style, he could be an easy pick here, especially since his arm can play in the corner outfield spots if the catching gig doesn’t pan out as a pro.

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Interestingly enough, the Jays also have some money they can play around with, given they don’t have the second-round selection.

There is a chance the Jays can try and spread the wealth by drafting underslot in round one or three and using the funds for a prep player, going overslot in other areas. The Jays did this last season with Johnny King (overslot by ~483K) in the third round and signing Khal Stephen underslot in the second round by $370K to help make up the difference (as well with some later picks). Toronto employed this tactic in 2023 (signing Nimmala under by $750K and signing Maroudis and Watts-Brown to overslot) and 2022 (overslot to Barriera and Toman, underslot on Ryan Jennings and Dylan Rock), so it wouldn’t be surprising if this tactic is pulled out again if the right player is around in round three. These deals usually have some conversations behind the scenes to make them work (remember Bo Bichette turning away multiple teams to be ‘drafted’ by the Jays?) but the first pick will likely show what hand the Jays will play.

If recent history is any indicator, the Jays have drafted a pitcher with their first pick in three of the past four drafts, selecting Barriera, Yesavage, and Gunnar Hoglund during that span, while Nimmala was the lone bat to be taken in the first round. However, with a new director of amateur scouting in the mix, recent history might not play any role in how the Jays draft this year.

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