Shane Bieber has surprisingly exercised his $16MM option to remain with the Blue Jays, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. He’s passing on a $4MM buyout, so he’ll pick up an extra $12MM to remain in Toronto for a second season.
The decision removes one of the better starting pitchers from the free agent market. Bieber was midway through a Tommy John rehab when he hit free agency for the first time in his career last offseason. He re-signed with the Guardians, then the only organization he’d known, on a two-year deal that allowed him to opt out after season one. Bieber was on a minor league rehab assignment when the trade deadline rolled around. Cleveland, then believing they were out of contention, traded him to Toronto for pitching prospect Khal Stephen.
The Blue Jays made one of the more fascinating risk-reward decisions of the deadline. They surrendered a legitimate prospect for a potential rental starter who hadn’t pitched in an MLB game in more than 14 months. It worked out well, as Bieber returned as the #3 caliber starter he had been with the Guards in 2023. He made seven regular season starts and turned in a 3.57 earned run average across 40 1/3 innings. Bieber fanned an above-average 23.3% of opposing hitters against an excellent 4.4% walk rate. He looked fully healthy and averaged 92.6 MPH on his four-seam fastball — his best velocity since 2021.
Bieber added another 18 2/3 frames over five postseason appearances. He pitched pretty well overall, allowing nine runs (eight earned) with 18 punchouts against six free passes. Bieber did surrender three playoff home runs, including the World Series-deciding Will Smith longball in extra innings of Game 7. It ended in disappointment, but Bieber was generally effective for the Jays both in the regular season and October.
That seemingly positioned him well for a return free agent trip this winter. Bieber turns 31 in May. While he’s unlikely to recapture the ace form that earned him the AL Cy Young award in the shortened 2020 season, he’d certainly have gotten plenty of interest as a mid-rotation starter who is still young for a free agent. A nine-figure deal didn’t seem entirely out of the question. At the very least, he looked set for a higher average annual value on a two- or three-year guarantee that allowed him to opt out after the first season.
The $12MM difference between the option price and the buyout is well below market value for a pitcher of Bieber’s caliber even if he were determined to take a one-year deal. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that’s less than Walker Buehler, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Alex Cobb, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano pulled on free agent contracts last winter. It’s a few million dollars above the guarantees signed by Michael Soroka ($9MM) and Michael Lorenzen ($7MM).
Bieber will nevertheless lock that in and try to help the Jays get over the top in 2026 after their heartbreaking near miss. Only his camp knows the specific reasoning behind that decision. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible he’s hopeful of hammering out a longer-term deal with the Jays. He’s clearly comfortable with the city and the organization. However, there hasn’t been any reporting to suggest the sides have opened extension talks, much less made significant progress. That’s not to say it’s impossible that such conversations have taken place behind the scenes, but the option decision is a huge development for the team.
Toronto had been facing the free agent departures of Bieber, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt in the rotation. They’re balancing their starting pitching needs against their desire to retain Bo Bichette, who could command a $200MM+ contract that makes him the second highest-paid player in the free agent class. Bieber voluntarily locking in a below-market salary to rejoin Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage and José Berríos is a major boost. They’ll still look to add at least one more starter, but this could give the Jays more flexibility to make a competitive offer to Bichette and/or upgrade the late innings.
Image courtesy of John Sokolowski, Imagn Images.