We’re profiling another breakout hitter in the Jays system today. Unlike last week’s subject, Yohendrick Pinango, Sam Shaw is still near the beginning of his MiLB journey. The Victoria, BC native was drafted in the 12th round of the 2023 draft as an 18 year old. He spent his draft year and all of last season in the Complex League, and only in 2025 has gotten his first taste of real minor league ball.
So far he seems to like it. Through Tuesday night, Shaw is hitting .298/.455/.510. That’s good for 73% better than league average, making him the third most productive qualified hitter in A ball. He’s doing it with patience, with a miniscule 16.5% chase rate leading him to walk more than a fifth of the time, and with power, with five home runs and 11 total extra base hits in 104 at bats.
Of course, high level stats can be misleading in the low minors, but I think there’s some reason to believe that Shaw has some real skills. Huge walk totals are often a mirage in A ball, as pitcher command tends to be bad and batters can often walk by just keeping the bat on their shoulder and betting that they’ll see four balls before they see three strikes. Shaw’s 58.6% in-zone swing rate would put him among the most patient fifth of MLB hitters, so passivity is a part of the equation, but a 42 percentage point differential between in-zone swing rate and chase rate speaks to a real approach.
There are more caveats around his power output, although he has some traits that also suggest it’s not purely a mirage. His max exit velocity is unimposing at 106.8mph. That would be in the bottom 10% of MLB hitters. At 5’10” and 180lbs, he doesn’t have a lot of obvious physical projection left, so it’s unlikely that much more raw strength is coming. He shows a knack for getting to the power he has, though, with a 43.4% hard hit rate that would be only slightly below average. His swing is also geared to extract maximum damage, focusing on lifting the ball (his 18.9 degree average launch angle would be in about the 85th percentile in MLB) and pulling it (55% of his balls in play are to the pull side, which is top of the scale). There’s precedent for players with limited raw power who are very good pure hitters selling out for pulled fly balls and producing for surprising power. It’s basically Alex Bregman’s whole career. It’s a difficult approach, though, and it’ll be hard to really trust that Shaw can sustain it until we see it work at least in the upper minors.
Speaking of pure hitting, that’s the one area of Shaw’s game that isn’t in much doubt. He makes contact on 81% of his swings, solidly above average overall. He’s got the bat speed to catch up to premium velocity, with an 89% contact rate on pitches thrown 93 or harder this season including turning a 99mph fastball around for a line single on Tuesday. He can be beaten by breaking balls, especially down and away, but not as often as most 20 year olds. He has great feel to move the barrel around the zone and seems likely to always be an above average contact hitter even given his extreme lift and pull approach.
Defensively, Shaw’s played exclusively second base this season after mostly being in left last year. He’s got solid actions and seems like he has a chance to stay on the dirt in spite of fringe speed and athleticism. That’ll be important, as the ability to play second significantly lowers the offensive bar he’ll have to clear to have a shot at a major league role.
If it all works out, Shaw probably looks something like longtime Pirates second baseman Neil Walker: a solid OBP driven offensive profile with sneaky power production a bit beyond what his raw impact would suggest, enough to carve out an everyday role in spite of fringy defence. There’s a long way to go to get there, of course, but the first steps have been promising.