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Toronto Blue Jays: Early 2025 MLB Draft results are trending in the right direction

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The Toronto Blue Jays’ farm system was looking bleak entering the 2025 season. It ranked in the back half of many industry pundits’ and analysts’ rankings, there was a new director of amateur scouting at the helm in Marc Tramuta, and injuries had ravaged most of the Jays’ top pitching prospects last season. Not to forget that the club also used some top prospects as trade bait in recent years and had some prospects falter in their development.

However, that started to change this season. Multiple pitching prospects – Trey Yesavage, Khal Stephen, Gage Stanifer, Juaron Watts-Brown, Grant Rogers, and Kenry Rojas to name a few – are having productive seasons, a few standout bats are making their way up the pipeline, and things appear to be trending in the right direction for the Blue Jays organization from a prospect development standpoint.

Factor in a potential successful 2025 MLB Draft, and this might be one of the best years we have seen in the Blue Jays’ farm system in recent memory.

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While we don’t want to count too many chickens before they hatch, there are already some early wins in the books when it comes to the business side of the game.

The Jays have already locked down eighth overall pick JoJo Parker, signing him $610,000 underslot ($6.2 million) compared to the $6.810 million that was allotted to that bonus slot.  Toronto also inked third-rounder Jake Cook ($71,400 under), fourth-rounder Micah Bucknam ($2,500 under), eighth-rounder Danny Thompson ($233,600 under), and 10th-rounder Austin Smith ($188,500 under), with all five players signing under their projected bonus slot values, combined with Parker, the Jays added over $1.106 million that they can use elsewhere admist their max total spend of $10,830,330 million (including the 5% overage, which Blue Jays Nation contributor BK has calculated).

Why does this matter? Considering the Jays’ draft strategy, they needed to save some funds for later round picks if they wanted to persuade a few players from either returning or heading to post-secondary. This heavily impacts the Jays’ 2025 draft outcome.

For example, the Jays drafted high school outfielder Blaine Bullard in the 12th round. With a slot bonus of $150,000, anything over that figure counts towards the Jays’ draft pool. With Bullard’s high ranking (120th entering the draft) and commitment to Texas A&M, the Jays would need to offer significantly more to persuade the switch-hitter from heading to College Station. Adding a player of Bullard’s calibre usually doesn’t come this late in the draft, as it used to be a given that high school players drafted past the tenth round were likely heading to college. However, the Jays signed Bullard, and that figure came in at $1,697,500, just over $1.5 million more than the slot bonus allotment for the 11th to 20th round players. From all accounts, this is a pretty big addition and win for the organization.

Because the Jays signed some players already underslot and banked $1.106 million to use elsewhere, the hit for signing Bullard doesn’t impact the overall Jays draft pool money as harshly. Without this leverage, the signing of Bullard to such a high dollar figure likely impacts other potential signings from this draft class because the Jays would have less funds to play with.

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Considering the Jays also selected college reliever Jared Spencer in the 11th round, who was ranked higher than Bullard (113th) heading into the draft weekend, he too, will likely command more than the $150K signing bonus allotment. The Jays also have a couple more high schoolers further down the draft board, including outfielders Jordan Rich (17th) and Ty Peeples (20th), with the latter being ranked at #242 by MLB Pipeline. Rich is already posting on social media with the Blue Jays’ gear on, so a signing is likely coming; however, Peeples may be a tougher sign considering his commitment to Georgia and higher ranking. The right dollar figure will help matters, and signing more players under their slot allotments will help matters.

This process isn’t a secret in the baseball world; every team does what the Blue Jays are accomplishing here.

The draft is no longer a ‘select the best players’ type of event; calculated moves are being made based on how much each team can work with. Drafting college seniors with late picks in the eighth, ninth, and tenth round areas, where the slot allotment is over $150,000, and signing them for peanuts (usually $5K) is part of the MLB Draft game nowadays. This helps give teams some additional wiggle room to spend elsewhere on players like Bullard. The Angels did the same thing this year with their 12th-round pick, signing Talon Haley to an $897,500 bonus while likely signing second overall selection Tyler Bremner to an underslot deal (allotment is $10.25 million) in the coming days, and more scenarios across the league will shake out shortly.

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Over the next week, it will become clearer if the Jays will be able to sign every player from the draft, although it is unlikely each will sign on the dotted line. The Jays failed to sign two players from the 2024 MLB Draft, three from the 2023 event, and three from the 2022 draft, with every pick coming from the 14th round or higher. As the signings become announced, we will be able to track where the Jays stand and how their chances are of signing some sleeper picks like Peeples further down the draft board.

Per BK’s current spreadsheet, the Jays are currently $441,500 over their slot bonus allotment and will need some reprieve from some of the remaining picks if they wish to sign everyone.

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