Joe Carter. Jose Bautista. Edwin Encarnación. George Springer.
Four Toronto Blue Jays legends who etched themselves into the history books with massive three-run home runs in the playoffs for the franchise.
Carter’s won the Blue Jays the 1993 World Series. Bautista’s famous bat flip bomb would secure the 2015 American League Divisional Series. Encarnación 11th’s inning walk-off home run in 2016 won the AL Wild Card Game. Springer’s swing of sweet poetic justice would send the Jays to the 2025 World Series.
Springer’s home run is undeniably one of the biggest moments in not just the last decade for the Blue Jays, but in the franchise’s 49-year history. It all begs the question, though, of where this home run ranks among the biggest playoff moments in franchise history.
Thanks to Baseball Reference’s Championship Win Probability Added (cWPA) statistic, we can get a look at which moments have contributed most to the Blue Jays’ chances of winning the World Series.
Springer’s homer
With one swing of the bat, Springer single-handedly changed the Blue Jays’ season. With the Jays down 3-1, his drive into deep left field boosted the team’s odds of winning the World Series by a staggering 19.73 percent. A massive swing, it ranks 77th all-time in terms of playoff cWPA — there are lots of World Series moments more impactful — even though it ranks first in terms of ALCS cWPA.
It ranks fourth in franchise history in terms of postseason cWPA moments. Carter’s Game 6 home run in 1993 ranks first, increasing the Blue Jays’ odds of winning the World Series by 30.28 percent.
Ranking second is Dave Winfield’s two-run double in the top of the 11th in the 1992 World Series, allowing Jimmy Key and Mike Timlin to close out the game and secure the Blue Jays’ first World Series win.
In third was another moment from that 1992 World Series, this time in Game 2. When Ed Sprague hit a two-run home run in the top of the ninth inning, giving the Blue Jays a 5-4 lead over the Phillies, it increased the Blue Jays’ odds by 24.18 percent.
Springer has established himself as the clutchest player in postseason history, according to Baseball Reference’s career cWPA, adding 90.8 percent odds in favour of his team. He can have a massive impact as the Blue Jays face the L.A. Dodgers.
George Springer now has the most postseason cWPA of any position player in MLB history
This means that no position player in MLB history has helped their team win a ring more than George Springer pic.twitter.com/fJyR4Xq6pg
— Nyanasaur (@Nyanasaur) October 21, 2025
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What about Bautista and Encarnación?
Tied 3-3 in the bottom of the seventh in Game 2 of the 2015 ALDS, Bautista’s home run off Sam Dyson ranks seventh in batting cWPA in franchise history. It increased the Blue Jays’ odds of winning the World Series by 8.74 percent.
But for as big of a moment as Encarnación’s three-run home run in the 2016 Wild Card was at the time, it didn’t nearly have as big of an impact on the Blue Jays’ World Series odds, increasing them by just 2.18 percent, coming in at 110th. While it may seem hard to believe given how big it was at the time, huge moments earlier in the postseason don’t have as much of an impact as those later in the postseason.
Other moments from the 2025 ALCS
While Springer’s home run will be looked at eternally as what helped send the Blue Jays to the World Series, there were some other massive moments in the series that swung things — literally and figuratively — in their odds.
In fact, there were four other moments that rank within the top 30 cWPA plays in Blue Jays postseason history:
- 42nd — Game 5, top of the fifth — George Springer’s RBI double to left scoring Addison Barger increased cWPA by 3.82 percent.
- 37th — Game 5, top of the sixth — Ernie Clement’s single to right field scoring Alejandro Kirk, advancing Clement to second, increased cWPA by 4.09 percent.
- 25th — Game 7, bottom of the seventh — Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s ground ball single pushing Barger to second, increased cWPA by 5.25 percent. (Andres Gimenez’ bunt to advance actually decreased their cWPA by .89 percent, for those curious)
- 24th — Game 7, bottom of the first — Daulton Varsho’s single to centre field, scoring Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. giving them a 2-1 lead, increased cWPA by 5.38 percent.
Pitcher’s coming up clutch
There’s been plenty of big pitching moments in postseason franchise history, with the top 10 filled with moments from the 1992 World Series. But there are four moments from this year’s ALCS that rank within the top 30:
- 30th — Game 7, top of the second — With two outs, Shane Bieber getting Victor Robles to ground out increased cWPA by 3.08 percent.
- 27th — Game 6, top of the fourth — With one out, Trey Yesavage forcing J.P. Crawford into a 4-6-3 double play increased cWPA by 3.26 percent.
- 17th — Game 7, top of the ninth — With no outs, Jeff Hoffman’s strikeout of Leo Rivas increased cWPA by 3.71 percent.
- 16th — Game 7, top of the second — With one out, Shane Bieber’s strikeout of Rivas increased cWPA by 3.99 percent.
- 11th — Game 6, top of the third — With one out, Yesavage forcing Cal Raleigh into a 3-4-1 double play increased cWPA by 4.43 percent.
Zach Laing is The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the Daily Faceoff DFS Hockey Report. He can be followed on X at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach.laing@bettercollective.com.