Daily Faceoff predicts that the Toronto Maple Leafs could miss the playoffs in the 2025-26 season.
In their annual post of Three In, Three Out, DFO’s Matt Larkin placed the Leafs in the latter category. His rationale for this distinction is multifaceted, but the primary reason is that the team has lost Mitch Marner and has not done enough to replace his regular-season production.
“Mitch Marner’s playoff struggles are well documented, but he’s the NHL’s eighth-leading scorer since debuting in 2016-17. He’s also an excellent two-way forward who plays in all situations. Matias Maccelli and Nicolas Roy were savvy additions but don’t come close to replacing Marner’s production. Now the Leafs’ top-end scoring will largely depend on Auston Matthews fighting off the chronic injury that reduced him from superstar to merely great in 2024-25, while they’ll hope John Tavares can repeat a 38-goal season at 35 years old. The Leafs, despite their reputation as a tighter-checking team under coach Craig Berube, were a mid-pack defensive team at best this past season, relying heavily on fantastic years from goaltenders Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. If I’m placing a bet, I still have the Leafs making the playoffs next season – calm down – but they may slide back in a highly competitive Atlantic Division. If Matthews can’t stay healthy and the goaltending regresses, the Leafs could be playing white-knuckle April games to earn a berth. If they don’t add another top-fix forward by any means necessary between now and October, GM Brad Treliving’s offseason is a massive failure.” – Matt Larkin
At face value, the loss of Marner will hurt the Leafs during the regular season, as his consistent production and durability have played a significant role in the team’s ability to make the playoffs over the past nine seasons. He wasn’t the primary reason why that occurred, but his presence helped, especially last year which proved to be a career year.
The additions of Matias Maccelli and Nicolas Roy should help fill the gap somewhat, but there is still a gaping hole in the top-six that Brad Treliving knows he needs to address. There is also the giant elephant in the room regarding Auston Matthews’ health and whether he can maintain full health, as well as return to the level of production he showed during his two 60+ goal seasons. Getting some of that offence back, as well as more contributions further down the lineup, will go a long way in mitigating the loss of Marner.
There are still enough good parts here that should give the Leafs a good chance of reaching the playoffs for a 10th straight season, but it certainly won’t be easy with the Atlantic Division as competitive as ever. The Florida Panthers are priming up for a three-peat, the Montreal Canadiens could make another step forward, the Tampa Bay Lightning remain a threat, and the Ottawa Senators could become more of a thorn in the side. Combine that with the other teams still being in the mix, and it’s not a guarantee that the Leafs will win their division again.
Perhaps some additional moves this offseason can tip the scales back in the Leafs’ favour, but for now, Daily Faceoff predicts they could finish next season on the outside looking in.
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