Daily Faceoff projects Maple Leafs to regress in 2025-26

It’s been a summer of profound change for the Toronto Maple Leafs, at least among their forward corps, and the start of the 2025-26 campaign may mark the beginning of a new era. Our friends at Daily Faceoff are previewing the upcoming season, where they expect the Maple Leafs to take a step back, at least during the regular season.

Here’s what Matt Larkin wrote:

There’s no way Toronto avoids this list after losing the fifth-ranked scorer in the franchise’s 108-history, smack in his prime at 28, coming off a career-high 102 points. Marner’s playoff struggles, particularly deeper in series, were very real, but getting to the playoffs will be tougher without him. Sitting seventh in NHL scoring since debuting in 2016-17, he’s as responsible as any Leaf for their nine consecutive playoff appearances, the longest active streak in the league. Yes, GM Brad Treliving did well to recoup something for Marner, landing third-line center Roy in a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights. And, yes, the Leafs made shrewd buy lows on Maccelli and Joshua. But that doesn’t change the fact they’re down an all-star right winger. They added even more size and toughness this summer, but they were already the biggest team in the NHL. Ever heard of the law of diminishing returns? The Leafs will be harder to play against in the postseason but will have a much tougher time earning home ice in Round 1 this season.

I’m not inclined to argue with Larkin’s logic. The consensus opinion last year was that the Leafs would be about 6-8 points worse during the regular season without Mitch Marner, but it may allow the team to engage in a playing style that is better suited for the playoffs. Marner was the Maple Leafs’ regular season MVP last year, before his bet on himself went awry after a series of poor performances against the Florida Panthers.

It will be an uphill task for the Maple Leafs to replace Marner’s offence. Auston Matthews will need a resurgent campaign, William Nylander will need to continue to operate as one of the NHL’s best goal scorers, while Matthew Knies is expected to take another leap in his development as one of the game’s emerging power forwards. Matias Maccelli is a clever playmaker but even at his best, he isn’t in the same tier as Marner. Expecting the Maple Leafs to win the Atlantic Division again may be a tough ask, especially given the Panthers’ incredible offseason and the incremental progress that Montreal and Ottawa are expected to make.

What do you think of this projection?

Sponsored by bet365