Free agency is now less than two weeks away, and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July, while many teams also have key restricted free agents to re-sign. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Maple Leafs.
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Mitch Marner – It was a career year for the 28-year-old who reached the 100-point mark for the first time after coming up just short a couple of times recently. He was second on the Maple Leafs in points in the playoffs. And despite all that, it’s widely expected that he will reach the open market with both sides believed to be interested in a fresh start. Players of Marner’s caliber rarely get to unrestricted free agency and the timing couldn’t be better with the big jump in the salary cap meaning that more teams have more cap flexibility. As a result, while Mikko Rantanen recently set the NHL record for the highest AAV ($12MM) given to a winger, Marner is expected to eclipse that with speculation that multiple teams are ready to offer $14MM or more. If he goes to free agency, he’ll be capped at seven years but if he and Toronto are open to it, a sign-and-trade by the end of June could allow him to get an eighth year and net the Maple Leafs a small return.
F John Tavares – Tavares eschewed pricier offers seven years ago in free agency to sign with his hometown team. The seven-year, $77MM deal wound up aging pretty well as he had 493 points in 515 games with the Maple Leafs, being a high-end second option behind Auston Matthews. Notably, he is coming off a particularly strong season that saw him notch 38 goals and 36 assists in 75 games. His 74 points put him second among pending UFAs behind Marner. While he’ll turn 35 in training camp, Tavares is well-positioned to land a multi-year deal at a price tag around the $7.5MM per season that Brock Nelson received to stay in Colorado since he’s the top center in a market that’s getting thinner in a hurry. However, for the Maple Leafs to have enough cap room to truly shake up their roster, it’s reasonable to think they’ll be asking for him to leave some money on the table once again.
F Max Pacioretty – While it took until the eve of training camp to secure a deal last year, Pacioretty wound up being a serviceable depth piece for the Maple Leafs when healthy and then had a solid playoff showing with eight points in 11 games. However, his days of being an every-game regular are likely over which will keep the contract offers closer to the $1MM mark in terms of base salary. However, as long as he signs a one-year pact (which is the likeliest outcome at this stage of his career), he is eligible for performance incentives which is what he had in his deal this season which could push the total potential compensation more toward the $2MM range if a decent market for his services develops.
F Steven Lorentz – After playing a limited role with Florida in 2023-24, Lorentz became pretty much an every-game regular for Toronto this season, chipping in with 19 points in 80 games, matching those numbers from two years ago. In doing so, he went from someone whose salary ceiling was at or near the league minimum to someone who should be able to surpass the $1MM mark next month on potentially a multi-year deal.
Other UFAs: F Nick Abruzzese, D Jani Hakanpaa, D Nicolas Mattinen (signed in Germany), D Dakota Mermis, G Matt Murray, F Alex Nylander, F Alex Steeves
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Matthew Knies – After a solid rookie season in 2023-24, Knies found another gear this season, notching 29 goals and 29 assists in 78 games while cementing a spot for himself on Toronto’s top line. In doing so, he has become one of the top pending RFAs. He’s the type of player the Maple Leafs would undoubtedly like to lock up on a long-term deal that buys some extra seasons of club control. However, doing so could push the price tag around $8MM per season which would cut into their spending flexibility to reshape their roster. As a result, it’s possible that the two sides look at a shorter-term bridge agreement. The 22-year-old has five RFA-eligible years left so a bridge deal could be for two or three years with a price tag closer to the $4.5MM area, giving GM Brad Treliving more short-term flexibility while setting Knies up to cash in down the road when he’ll be closer to unrestricted free agency and have arbitration eligibility.
F Nick Robertson – A speculative trade candidate last year following his trade request, not a whole lot has changed since then. The 23-year-old did collect a career-best 15 goals this season but once again failed to secure a full-time spot in the lineup and played just three times in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s believed that he’d still prefer a change of scenery. Owed a qualifying offer of just under $919K, Robertson could get a bit more than that thanks to scoring 29 goals in 125 games over the last two seasons combined thanks to his arbitration eligibility. That makes him a potential non-tender candidate if a new deal – with Toronto or elsewhere – can’t be reached by the end of the month as it’s unlikely a team will want to give him a chance to go to a hearing.
F Pontus Holmberg – Holmberg has worked his way up from being a depth player in the minors to one who has played in 122 NHL games over the last two seasons while also suiting up in all but one playoff game this spring. His defensive game and positional versatility make him a useful depth player to have. He’s owed a qualifying offer of just over $866K but his arbitration eligibility could give him a shot at doubling that, putting him into the same sphere as Robertson where the price tag could get a bit too high for a player who projects to be near the bottom of the lineup.
Other RFAs: G Dennis Hildeby, F Roni Hirvonen (signed in Finland), D Mikko Kokkonen, F Reese Johnson, D Topi Niemela, F Cedric Pare, D William Villeneuve
Projected Cap Space
The Maple Leafs are set to enter the summer with around $25.7MM in cap room, one of the larger amounts around the NHL. It should be more than enough to dissuade an offer sheet for Knies, as well. Of course, a lot of that stems from two of their top-four-paid players getting set to hit the open market as the top players at their respective positions. The good news is that Treliving now has plenty of flexibility to work with but he also now has two significant holes to fill in his lineup and a pricey second contract for Knies to contend with. But for the first time in a while, Toronto could look considerably different come October.
Photos courtesy of Nick Turchiaro (Marner) and Kim Klement Neitzel (Knies)-Imagn Images. Contract info courtesy of PuckPedia.