Goalies, as always, are an interesting topic. If you fancy yourself a draft expert (I do not), there is still a good chance you have business fancying yourself a goaltender expert — I most certainly am not.
The Maple Leafs have shown a tendency to select at least one goaltender every year and while there is a new Director of Amateur Scouting, it’s still the same GM, and that GM has shown a desire to keep the pipeline flowing. I don’t disagree with that.
The Leafs also have looked at Russians in three out of their last four goaltender selections. Understandable given their goaltending coach’s experience in the KHL and working with Russian netminders. They also haven’t drafted a goaltender shorter than 6-foot-2, and that’s probably worth considering when looking at the goaltending class.
This is considered a decent year for goaltending and there is a strong possibility that we see several goaltenders get selected before the Leafs even make their first pick, but it’s also true that the Leafs haven’t selected a goaltender before the fourth round since Joseph Woll in 2016. With only two draft picks in the top 100, it’s likely the Leafs will continue that trend of waiting for goaltenders.
Considering all of that, here are a few options.
Pyotr Andreyanov, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva (MHL)
If the Maple Leafs were to reach for a goaltender and select one early, it might be NHL Central Scouting’s top ranked European goaltender.
Other than where he’s projected to go in the draft, Andreyanov fits the Maple Leafs bill of being a 6-foot-2 plus Russian. If the plan is to have as many goaltenders with similar backgrounds adjusting to North America together, Andreyanov might be the one to go with.
In his 37 MHL games he put up an amazing .942 save percentage, which only declined slightly to .929 in his six playoff games.
From the gaudy numbers that Artur Akhtyamov and Vyacheslav Peksa had put up previously in the VHL and MHL, there should be some consideration given to how repeatable these numbers could be in North America, but the main thing is that he fits the Leafs goaltending archetype and he is about as highly rated as they come.
Right behind Andreyanov in the European goaltender rankings is Semyon Frolov, who has equally impressive numbers but could possibly be had with a third round pick and Andrei Trofimov might be the best of the late round options for the Maple Leafs.
Carl Axelsson, Austin Bruins (NAHL)
If the Maple Leafs don’t go the Russian route, perhaps they will go with the Dennis Hildeby route and select a big Swedish netminder.
I’ll admit that I’m a sucker for NAHL goaltenders (Brad Treliving has gone with an NAHL goaltender previously with the Flames) and while it isn’t clear where Axelsson will play next season, if he goes the NCAA route like many NAHLs do, it would be interesting to see what a 6-foot-4 Swedish goaltender can do with three or four year run in college.
Axelsson did struggle in the USHL and that’s a bit of a red flag, but his .937 save percentage in 19 games in the goaltender friendly NAHL creates some curiosity about whether a late pick on a project makes sense.
If the Leafs go with a slightly more proven options they might also consider Måns Goos of Färjestad BK (J20) as a big Swedish goaltender option.
Goos is yet to see the SHL and his junior numbers are all sub-.900, but there is a saying about not being able to teach 6’5 and it might ring true even more for goaltenders than it does for skaters.
NHL Central Scouting sees Goos as the fourth best European goaltending prospect in the draft, and both The Hockey News and Future Considerations ranked Goos in their top-100 prospects.
Jayden Kraus, Victoria Royals (WHL)
I don’t think the Maple Leafs are under any pressure to buy Canadian, especially in goal where the country has struggled to produce reliable NHL talent for some time. That said, I’m going to at least consider Central Scouting’s 12th ranked North American goaltender for a couple of reasons.
The first is a fairly shallow observation and it’s that Treliving tends to look at the Western Hockey League a lot and has had a tendency to draft from it more frequently than Kyle Dubas did. After Joshua Ravensbergen, Kraus is the next highest Western Canadian kid on the list.
The second part is that he’s getting his reps. Playing 46 regular season games and six playoff games means that Kraus has played a lot more than the other players I’ve listed so far and his .908 save percentage is pretty good in junior hockey (note that the Royals were a division winning team and that helps.)
Kraus having the net for the Royals again next season means a chance to get in lots of work and work could equal development.
For what it is worth, the last time the Maple Leafs picked a WHL goaltender it was Ian Scott in 2017, and that was also the last time Mark Leach’s Dallas Stars picked one as well (Dylan Ferguson).
The last time Treliving picked a WHL goaltender, it was Dustin Wolf in the 7th round of 2019. Wolf was the 12th-ranked North American goaltender by Central Scouting.
If there is another Canadian goaltender who’s name I want to offer up, it is Trenten Bennett. He’s an overager with just six games worth of OHL experience with Owen Sound but at 6’8, there is certainly an intriguing biological aspect to him that might make him worth a late round pick before he goes off to St. Lawrence University.
Overall, drafting goaltenders is a mess in the NHL. Rick DiPietro proved that a long time ago but what is interesting how little the NHL has improved since then. As of this past season only five goaltenders in each of the 2016 and 2017 drafts respectively have had notable NHL careers after being ranked by Central Scouting. The 2018 and 2019 drafts have had three apiece, and 2020 is oddly, too soon to tell.
If the draft in general is finding goaltenders at just over a two percent success rate and it seemingly takes over five years to get there development wise, you could make a strong case (and many have) for sitting out drafting goaltenders, at least for a couple of years. And if the Maple Leafs are determined to build a surprise of lottery tickets at this critical position, it seems like it best to ignore the rankings and trust the goaltending department on who they think they can work best with.