How will the Olympics affect the 2025-26 Maple Leafs?

Is it too early to be thinking about the Olympic break? When it comes to hockey content in August, nothing is too early. And while the Olympics aren’t until February, there is good reason to consider the impact from day one of the season and go into the year knowing what benefits will come from it and what risks are going to need to be mitigated from it. That’s why it’s important to understand the impact of the Olympics on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

When it comes to players directed impacted by being Olympic roster locks, the Leafs big three of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and [checks notes] David Kampf are the locks to participate if they are healthy. Kidding aside and acknowledging that there is little certainty of Kampf being a Leaf shortly after this is published let alone in February, there is a very real need for the Leafs to have a plan in place for managing the workload of their top two offensive players while maintaining a competitive team in the final stretch of the season.

The Olympics and playoff level intensity that goes along with them is a particular worry when talking about Auston Matthews, as his health has become an ongoing concern for Toronto.

In addition to that trio of locks, John Tavares, Matthew Knies, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Stolarz, Matias Maccelli, and potentially even Chris Tanev or Morgan Rielly could get consideration for their national teams either off the strength of a strong first half of the season or injuries requiring countries to look further down their depth charts than they’d like.

As for some non-roster Leafs that are likely to get the tap on the shoulder, Benoit-Olivier Groulx will likely be playing for France, and Tinus-Luc Koblar could very well play for Norway, although when talking about the impacts of the Olympics on the Maple Leafs, the experience would only be a positive for Koblar and potentially there will be some motivation and bump in the play from Groulx this season as well due to representing his country.

Like Matthews or Nylander there are several players listed that the risk of injury would represent a major setback for the Maple Leafs. And while I’m sure he’d love to be tapped for the event, having Anthony Stolarz involved in the Olympics would be less than ideal for the Leafs as opposed to the alternative of three weeks off duty.

The Stolarz/Woll tandem if planned for throughout the season will need to divide 57 games between them prior to the Olympic break. Leaning into the hot hand particularly heading into the break after balancing the workload for most of the first half of the season might be the best course of action and depending on where Toronto sits in the standings at the Olympic break, a new division of work can be created to either lean on the top performer to get into the playoffs or rest them for the post season.

The good news is that even if Stolarz (or even Woll for that matter) were selected to Team USA, it will be one of Hellebuyck or Oettinger owning the net and anyone else will just proudly sit around jet lagged wearing a ballcap on the bench.

Looking at how the Leafs performed last season following the shorter break for the Four Nations Tournament, Toronto prospered. They came out of the break and had a five game win streak. They faltered briefly around the trade deadline with a 1-4-1 stretch but overall finished the post tournament schedule with a 19-6-2 record. There is something to be said for that rest.

There is also something to be said for the Olympics leading into the trade deadline and maybe a little incentive to complete trades prior to the Olympic break. Rather than a frenzy for players to relocate to a new team and city, they potentially have a three week window to get settled, maybe meet some of their new teammates and get on the ice for the return to play practices at the end of the Olympic break before playing their first games. It’s civilized and you could argue that smart GMs will be looking to make trades early. At the very least, it makes things a lot easier when it comes to having pro scouts, coaches, analytics folks, etc. in a strategy meeting leading up to the deadline.

The Olympic break is also sandwiched between the Leafs longest road trip of the season. While the schedule shows it at six consecutive games on the road, it instead works out to being a four game trip and then a two game trip. Suddenly that’s a lot more manageable.

A lot of what is benefiting the Leafs will benefit other clubs as well and with the exception of Toronto holding its collective breath to make sure that Auston Matthews and William Nylander return in perfect health, the experience should be a positive one.

Still, there are some teams that will benefit more than others. Pretty much every team that isn’t sending a goaltender already has a leg up and unfortunately for the Leafs their two key division rivals have Russian goaltenders that are guaranteed rest in February. The Senators and Canadiens will be less fortunate in that regard and will have a tougher go of it as a result.

You can make a case for the Panthers seeing as many as 11 of the players in their lineup playing at the Olympics. Couple that with two years of long playoff runs and aside from Bobrovsky, there is a real risk of fatigue.

It will be interesting to see what the Leafs do as well as other organizations when it comes to load management for players involved in the tournament. For the Leafs it will clearly be decided based on where they are sitting in the standings and the Olympics coupled with the fact that their difficulty of schedule shows the early part of the season being easier for them, the Leafs having a strong start to the 2024-25 season affords them the luxury of rest in March and early April.