The Maple Leafs will be without defenseman Brandon Carlo for a good chunk of the season. After telling reporters yesterday that Carlo had a setback in his recovery from a lower-body injury and was meeting a specialist, head coach Craig Berube said today that the righty will need surgery and will be out “an extended period of time” (via David Alter of The Hockey News).
Carlo has already missed seven games due to the injury he sustained against the Kings on Nov. 13. It’s still unclear what play caused it; he didn’t appear to miss a shift. It wouldn’t be shocking if Carlo had been playing through something and aggravated it. The 6’5″ shutdown rearguard has been noticeably less involved in the play than normal this season, averaging a career-low 0.67 hits per game. That’s a 56% decrease from his career average of 1.51.
Physicality and defensive smarts are where Carlo makes his money, and they’re why the Maple Leafs parted ways with a steep package – including Fraser Minten and this year’s first-round pick – to acquire him from the Bruins at last season’s trade deadline. Carlo’s contract situation was a significant factor as to why Toronto paid a premium. Not only was he not a rental – he remains under contract through 2026-27 – but Boston retained 15% of his cap hit to bring it down to $3.485MM for the Leafs. That’s a great price tag for someone Toronto imagined would be consistently deployed as a top-four defender as an anchor for Morgan Rielly.
Unfortunately, the Reilly-Carlo experiment has largely fallen flat. The duo was outscored 10-9 in last year’s postseason. This year, they’re allowing 3.11 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, the most of any Toronto defensive pair. Carlo’s -4.2% relative Corsi share is the third-worst figure of his career. And while he’s not known or relied upon for offense, his two assists through 18 games are also a slightly lower pace than what he usually posts.
With another year left on his contract at an already-reduced cap hit, the struggling Maple Leafs might have looked to flip Carlo as they look to retool their depth on the fly, particularly in the name of improving their defensive structure. Only the Sharks have allowed more shots per game this season than Toronto’s 31.4. With fellow top-four righty Chris Tanev also on the shelf as he rehabs a suspected concussion, keeping him out indefinitely, their depth has been tested.
If the Leafs’ focus is still on getting significantly ahead of the .500 mark for the first time this season and putting themselves back in the playoff conversation, finding a higher-profile stopgap on the right side than recent waiver claim Troy Stecher needs to be a priority – especially if Carlo’s return timeline is now months, not weeks.