If I travelled back to in time to the 2015 NHL draft and told my 2015 self that the Leafs were about to draft a player who would go on to have the 5th highest all-time point total for the Maple Leafs I would have been positively giddy. I might still have wanted to draft Matthew Barzal more, but I would have been giddy. If I then went on to say that a decade later the fans of the team would be ready to drive that player to the airport on free agency day, I would have been briefly confused but then would remember it’s the Leafs we were talking about and presumably all of this would make perfect sense.
Mitch Marner’s run as a Maple Leaf has been unique. Sure, you can probably find Leafs fans who call Mats Sundin soft until this day and plenty of Leafs fans who place an unrealistic about of blame for the Burke era Leafs on Phil Kessel, but Marner’s run as a lightning rod was unique. I’ll spare you the eulogy until he actually signs in Carolina or Vegas and how deserving Mitch Marner was of the criticism he received until then as well, but instead focus on what the Maple Leafs are losing in the next couple of weeks:
- A playmaker who is good for over 90 points per season
- The player responsible for setting up Auston Matthews during his peak goalscoring season
- A trustworthy defensive zone player
- The powerplay quarterback who is smart enough defensively that the Leafs could get away with five forwards
- An aggressive penalty killer
- By public accounts, a well-regarded teammate who frequently received praise from his coach
- One of the best players at intercepting neutral zone passes
- A 30-goal scorer
There’s a lot there that the Leafs are going to want to replace even if the recent focus is on excessive contract demands and timid playoff appearances. The Leafs certainly won’t be trying to replace that, but substantial holes exist on the Maple Leafs’ top line, top penalty kill unit, and top powerplay unit. Brad Treliving needs to find a way of plugging those holes while attempting to fix what has been ailing the Leafs.
Marner, the top line winger
Replacing Marner at 5v5 is likely the first trait that the Maple Leafs will look at. It’s not as simple as saying that Nylander is the next best winger, so he’s beside Matthews now or saying that Max Domi can pass and didn’t look bad with Matthews before, he can take the jump.
With both Nylander and Domi, there are significant defensive shortcomings that change the way that line is deployed or potentially the defensive results they’ll achieve. Putting Nylander with Matthews also seems like a very loaded top line and while additional talent is surely inbound, it still seems unlikely that they will be at the level of William Nylander talentwise. That’s also a lot of goalscoring on one line with Knies, Matthews, and Nylander and not a lot of playmaking.
Domi, on the other hand, is taking a player who has spent the last five years telling you at best he’s a 50-point guy, it’s likely that Auston Matthews gets the best out of him and he’s closer to that 50-point guy than the 33-point he was last season, but is that good enough for a regular spot with Auston Matthews, not really. It’s at best a Plan C.
That likely means that the Leafs are ideally looking for a 70+ point player who can be relied on in all situations as their ideal fit here. Not an easy ask.
Marner, the powerplay quarterback
Marner certainly helps the Leafs get the most out of their powerplay throughout the regular season and the versatility in his game allowed Craig Berube to ditch the defencemen completely on the top unit. With Marner’s absence the Leafs are likely returning to a 4F1D approach, and that likely means that Morgan Rielly is the top candidate to step into that role.
Rielly is certainly a downgrade from Marner when it comes to moving the puck around the offensive zone, without Marner there he’ll have the opportunity to do it more than he has and without the redundancy of both Rielly and Marner on the ice, it’s potentially a step forward for Rielly even if it is a step back for the Leafs. Neither Rielly nor Marner pack a heavy shot from the point, so an area that the Leafs should want to improve in isn’t really impacted by Marner’s absence, and with Matthew Knies already claiming a spot on the top unit, it seems pretty clear who the Leafs would go with unless there is a potential upgrade coming via trade or free agency.
Ideally what Toronto should be looking for here, with Rielly or possibly even Max Domi being able to function as the puck movers is whether Toronto can explore heavy shot option who can tee the puck up from the point. Brock Boeser is one example of players available in free agency with the type of shot the Leafs are interested in. Nik Ehlers isn’t far off Boeser’s shot strength either.
Marner, the shorthanded threat
Few players keep the opposition’s powerplay more honest than Mitch Marner. Even if the playoffs when Marner not have had the green light for shorthanded chances he has something to offer on the penalty kill and helped the Leafs stay in the game during tough situations.
He has a unique skillset as well as his mind in very in tune with reading the movement of the puck around the zone that makes replacing him on the penalty nearly impossible. The Leafs will understandably miss what he does there but could always attempt to replicate it a little with a player like Nick Robertson or William Nylander.
The Leafs also have the opportunity to cut Marner’s penalty kill partner, David Kampf, loose as a result of his departure. With a $2.4M commitment to a fourth line centre who was largely benefiting from this work he was doing with Marner, the Leafs can move on gain some additional flexibility while trusting players like Laughton, Holmberg, Lorentz, and Jarnkrok (as examples) to the penalty kill and foregoing the deployment of top line players as a regular part of the penalty kill.
If the Leafs are looking to add a penalty killer in free agency, good news, they are cheap and abundant. If they are looking to add one with offensive upside, Pius Suter of the Vancouver Canucks is an example of a potential fit. Of course, he won’t be as cheap as some of the fourth line PK specialist options out there.
Replacing Mitch Marner
From Moneyball:
Billy Beane: Guys, you’re still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can’t do it, and we can’t do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him. Re-create him in the aggregate.
Grady Fuson: The what?
Billy Beane: Giambi’s on-base percentage was .477. Damon’s on-base, .324. And Olmedo’s was .291. Add that up, and you get…
Peter Brand: Do you want me to speak?
Billy Beane: When I point at you, yeah.
Peter Brand: 1.092.
Billy Beane: Divided by three.
Peter Brand: .364.
Billy Beane: That’s what we’re looking for. Three ballplayers… three ballplayers whose average OBP is…
Peter Brand: .364.
There isn’t another Mitch Marner in free agency and honestly, if there was the Maple Leafs probably don’t want him. What Toronto doesn’t want to lose is the 100 points he brings to the team, along with the special teams and defensive play upside. Replacing that in another $10.93M player doesn’t make a lot of sense and is hard to do, but if you were to look at the Leafs potentially moving on from Ryan Reaves and David Kampf (or really any other possibly departing Leafs) that then becomes $14M to replace three players with a combined 120 points. That’s a lot easier to do, but not a case that three 40-point players are the answer but rather that the Leafs need to embrace the opportunity to move on from superstars and superstar egos.
The Leafs being without Mitch Marner and not having another first round pick until 2028 should also give the Leafs pause about overcommitting in free agency. A straight up superstar isn’t available today but doesn’t negate the possibility in the future. (Does Toronto want to purposely leave themselves in a position to take a serious run at McDavid in the unlikely event he isn’t immediately signed?)
This is not business as usual for the Maple Leafs and no matter what you personally think of Mitch Marner, losing your top scorer is seldom a good thing for a hockey club.