Brad Treliving’s July 1st media availability made one thing clear, the Toronto Maple Leafs aren’t going to spend the rest of the offseason just filling the vacancies on the Toronto Marlies roster, there is still a big piece of work to be done on the Maple Leafs, and that is to find a top six forward.
The idea of a top six forward is somewhat ambiguous. The notion that he is going to “replace Mitch Marner” is aiming too high and absolutely goes against what the Maple Leafs are looking to do with the lineup. A top-heavy lineup is the philosophy the Leafs are going to discard. That’s not to say that Brad Treliving is going outright reject high end talent, if Jason Robertson is available, you still ask about him, odds are a 100-point guy or 40-goal scorer aren’t going to be what Brad Treliving is looking for.
In contrast, Brad Treliving seems to have set the bar higher than going after Andrew Mangiapane, the recent signee with the Oilers, and a former top sixer on Treliving’s Flames. Mangiapane, like Maccelli would have been more of a reclamation project, and filling in the Leafs lineup with question marks is probably not a good idea.
The bar seems to be set rightfully high and in the free agency world the only player who remotely checks off anything close to what the Leafs are looking for is Nikolaj Ehlers. Ehlers is a safe bet for 50-60 points but hasn’t shown a playoff upside or offers a standout ability that makes Nikolaj an exciting change from Marner. He’s the easy solution though. Treliving can offer him money, and he can accept, and the Leafs’ front office can enjoy their summer.
Oddly enough, it seems like they might be going a different route, the harder route, the trade route.
What do the Leafs have to give?
Before even looking at who the Leafs could target it seems worthwhile to look at what they can actually offer other teams. The biggest asset at the Maple Leafs disposal at the moment seems to be cap relief. There are already 10 teams within $3M of the salary cap, some of them still looking to add or make changes, some already needing to shed some salary to get compliant, and others that will LTIR their way out of trouble and aren’t interesting in what the Leafs are selling. It’s also the first day of the offseason and other teams will find themselves in that situation and the Leafs might be able to pry someone out of these organizations who fit their needs.
The issue with making a cap space move is that you aren’t getting prime top six talent, you are getting the player that organizations are most willing to part with and see as expendable. While the Maccelli deal was worthwhile, going entirely the salary dump route isn’t ideal for the Maple Leafs. The concept starts looking more useful if Toronto sweetens the pot a bit more with other assets.
Are the Maple Leafs at the point where they are going to be selling off high picks in the 2028 and 2029 draft? If not, the 2026 3rd round pick or 2027 2nd round pick are the best the Maple Leafs have to offer.
On the prospect front the Maple Leafs, if talking about top six talent, are going to need to consider whether or not Easton Cowan and Ben Danford are prospects they are comfortable with moving on from as they are what helps land Toronto a top talent return. The optics of having to give up a top prospect to replace Marner won’t look good on Treliving but if those same optics look like the Leafs have a better lineup heading into the 2025-26 season, fans will get over it.
Besides Cowan and Danford, the Leafs goaltending prospects might also garner some attention and promising post-draft seasons from Noah Chadwick, Victor Johansson, and Miroslav Holinka could put them on the radar as well.
The Leafs also have a player on their roster that teams are going to be calling about and that is Joseph Woll. Taking an axe to the goaltending depth chart has rarely been a good thing for the Maple Leafs but without question goaltending is a need around the league and Woll represents an upgrade that commands a strong return. The Leafs could deal him and then sign somebody like Alexandar Georgiev and hope that Curtis Sanford can work some magic. A Woll trade feels like shuffling deckchairs, but there is no blame on Brad Treliving if he’s at least exploring this.
Beyond Woll, Nick Robertson is going to be the most enticing NHLer that the Leafs will readily offer up. The infamous Leafs package deal might ride again with Robertson, the 2027 2nd round pick, and a second-tier prospect being the Leafs take it or leave de facto best offer. A 23-year-old who has shown in he can score 15 goals consistently in under 82 games isn’t nothing and seems like a big reason the Leafs have qualified him. Someone is going to want that offence in their lineup.
Morgan Rielly would be a player that could get something done as well but his no movement clause complicates things to the point that speculation is pointless.
And players like David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Max Domi are players the Leafs should be comfortable with moving on from, but the last remnants of the free agent market need to disappear before there is any chance that Brad Treliving will be able to attach value to these players in trade. None of them are likely to add much value to a trade for a top six player, they are just the likely cap casualties if Brad Treliving goes above the $7M cap space he has to work with (The Leafs have $5M in cap space according to PuckPedia, and presumably Pezzetta and Reaves will be Marlies.)
While the Leafs might not be rich in assets, that is more than enough to look at the wide array of players that could be classed as top six forwards.
Who should the Maple Leafs be looking at?
This is a casting a pretty wide net and honestly who knows who is available. As a starting point there is the Daily Faceoff Trade Target list from before the entry draft which definitely highlights that it is the right year to be shopping for defencemen, not forwards, but to paraphrase Brad Treliving, there are about 27 teams looking for a top six centre right now. That’s going to limit the market.
Marco Rossi seems to be the name at the top of most trade bait lists and whether that still holds true following the draft and free agency, isn’t certain, but while checking the boxes for being a youthful point producing centre, his 5’9 stature and still to be determined cap hit likely exclude him from consideration for the Leafs, or at least doesn’t put him at the top of their list.
Rickard Rackell and Jonathan Marchessault represent two aging veterans on rebuilding teams that wouldn’t be expensive either in assets or cap hit that would allow the Leafs to address the position without depleting too much of their prospect pool. While it remains to be seen how excited Kyle Dubas would be to pull off a trade with his former club, it is worth noting that the individuals he would be spiting are now gone and there is a strong possibility that he and Wes Clark might have some Leafs prospects they’d be fond of working with again.
Martin Necas staying with the Avalanche now seems like the most likely course of action despite having his name come up frequently in trade target lists. Jason Robertson’s contract extensions will determine whether or not the Stars see him as someone they’d want to move but Toronto might lack the assets to be bidders in that regard despite the fact he fits the archetype of what the Leafs want in their top six.
And finally, both Jordan Kyrou and Elias Pettersson had their names on the trade target list prior to their no trade clauses taking effect on July 1st. Whether there is a still an appetite to move them remains to be seen and it was likely a testing the waters situation.
Beyond the lists, some targets worthy of speculation would have to include the idea of the Leafs and Blues revisiting their trade deadline talks around Brayden Schenn. The Blues are right to the cap and likely looking to do more than run it back with the addition of Nick Bjugstad. Logic would dictate that they would try to deal a defenceman first before a forward, but this remains an easy game of connect the dots.
There doesn’t seem to be much interest between the Flames and Brad Treliving to come together on a trade, but that won’t eliminate the feelings of nostalgia around Nazem Kadri. Not only does he improve centre depth, but he replaces two thirds of Marner’s offence at least, and also Pontus Holmberg’s penalty drawing ability. Kadri being a fan favourite (for some, there is no universally beloved player that will unite all Leafs fans) doesn’t equal him being available or the Flames wanting to make a deal with the Leafs. Moving Kadri makes hitting the cap floor a bit more challenging for the Flames and there probably is still some intention of icing a respectable lineup.
The reality of a lacklustre free agency
There wasn’t much available this July 1st and that is likely to become very evident in what the payday for Ehlers will look like. Some teams out of the ease of having cap space brought their guys back, others panicked and re-signed their players when they started looking difficult to replace, and for the most part teams stocked the middle to bottom parts of their lineup card with overpriced filler and other than the Golden Knights, I don’t think you can really say a team improved (and even there, not having Pietrangelo, and losing Hague and Roy negates a lot the upside Marner brings.)
The NHL GMs are now in the situation they’ve dreaded for years. They have to make hockey trades. That’s both an exciting and scary prospect, but one Brad Treliving will have to embrace if the Leafs don’t want to take a Marner sized step back in 2025-26.
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