The Maple Leafs don’t expect many hiccups getting a contract for pending restricted free agent winger Matthew Knies across the finish line this offseason. On today’s 32 Thoughts podcast, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said the two sides had preliminary talks around the trade deadline and the Leafs “know what a deal would look like.”
Any wiggle room remaining in talks is likely concerned with contract length, not annual compensation. David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period relayed last month that the Leafs were pushing for a long-term deal while Knies’ camp was going for more of a three-to-five-year bridge agreement.
AFP Analytics projects a short-term agreement for Knies to come in at two years for $4.2MM annually, while a long-term agreement is projected to cost the Leafs roughly $7.25MM per year for seven years. The end result will presumably come closer to the latter number, possibly with a similar AAV for a year or two less than AFP’s projection.
Knies enters his first round of non-entry-level contract negotiations after a breakout sophomore campaign. In a consistent first-line role with Auston Matthews, the 22-year-old finished fifth on the team in scoring with 58 points (29 G, 29 A) in 78 games and saw over 18 minutes of ice time per game. His 182 hits finished third on the team and were second among forwards behind fourth-line winger Steven Lorentz.
Some have posited that, on the heels of that performance, Knies would be one of the top offer sheet targets this summer, especially since he doesn’t have arbitration eligibility to fall back on. It’s looking unlikely he’ll reach that stage, though. With Mitch Marner expected to test the UFA market, they’re not going to need to set aside cap space for a mega-extension. They’re also likely aware of what it will take to get an extension across the finish line with pending UFA center John Tavares. With significantly increased clarity on next season’s financial picture compared to a few months ago, they’ll presumably prioritize a Knies extension before he becomes eligible to sign offer sheets after officially becoming an RFA on July 1.