The Toronto Maple Leafs roster looks very different from what it was just a week ago. The Mitch Marner era is over in Toronto. No matter how fans feel about him, losing a 100-point, first-line winger is not easy to replace. That is especially so, when that player is an elite playmaker who is constantly setting up the best goal scorer in the league. The Leafs didn’t make a big splash in free agency to address the hole that was left. What they did do, however, is take a bet on Matias Maccelli. While not of the same quality, Mattias Maccelli’s role with the Leafs could be very similar.
Who is the New Leaf Matias Maccelli?
The Leafs acquired Maccelli on June 30th for a third-round pick in 2027 that becomes a 2029 second-round pick if he posts over 50 points this year. Maccelli is in the final year of a three-year contract that carries a $3,425,000 cap hit. In the 2022-23 campaign Maccelli finished fourth in Calder Trophy voting with the Arizona Coyotes. At 24 years old, Maccelli is still relatively young. He saw great success in Arizona in 2023-24, putting up 17 goals and 40 assists. However, he took a real step back when he wasn’t playing in the top six in Utah, with eight goals and ten assists this year. The Toronto Maple Leafs are betting on him being able to bounce back to be more like the player he was two years ago.
Mattias Macelli’s Role on The Toronto Maple Leafs
It seems like the Leafs are looking at Maccelli as a pseudo-Marner replacement. In other words, recreating Mitch Marner in the aggregate. Mitch Marner, but at home.
Now, saying that Maccelli is an equivalent replacement for Marner would be an asinine statement. However, they do have some similar strengths. Namely, Maccelli’s passing ability. This has been highlighted countless times by others within the hockey community, but Maccelli has an elite passing ability. It’s not just the highlight reel passes he generates, though. He consistently is able to set up his teammates in a position to get a shot off.
Data and Visuals from All Three Zones
We can see above that Maccelli is actually one of the best in the league in regards to generating shot assists. He generates 10.58 shot assists per 60 minutes of play. This is slightly higher than Mitch Marner last season, who created 10.29 shot assists per 60. With a Z-score of 1.78, this makes Maccelli better than 96% of players in terms of generating passes that result in a shot attempt. Specifically, we see that Maccelli does not make a lot of passes back to the point. This is a good thing because typically, point shots are the lowest percentage shots a player can make. He does, however, make a decent amount of high-danger passes (specifically passes from behind the net or passes across the slot, or “royal road“). Again, Maccelli is generating more of these high-danger passes/60 than Marner did last season.
A key difference is that last season, Mitch Marner spent the most ice time with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies. Matias Maccelli spent most of his ice time with Ian Cole and Lawson Crouse. There’s quite a discrepancy in terms of the quality of teammates there. The hope for Toronto is that Matias Maccelli can elevate his game when playing with high-calibre teammates.
Maccelli’s Other Strengths
All these comparisons have been made between Marner and Maccelli. It’s because of the timing and two similar strengths of the players. However, making these one-to-one comparisons is potentially unfair to Maccelli and could be setting him up for failure. While his elite passing ability has been highlighted, he also has some other skills at his disposal. Namely, his ability to enter the offensive zone with control of the puck.
It’s been well-researched how important zone entries are in hockey, and how important it is to enter the zone with control. The days of the dump and chase are becoming a thing of the past. This is one of Maccelli’s strongest areas besides his passing. He carries the puck in the zone often and with control, and this is what leads to his incredible offence generation off the rush.
The Importance of Ice Time
Maccelli’s counting stats dipped significantly this season. That appears to be for two main reasons. The first is his teammates, which has already been mentioned. The second is his ice time. In 2023-24, Maccelli averaged 16:14 of ice time. In 2024-25, that number dipped by nearly 3 minutes to 13:44. We can compare his on-ice results when he was given real ice time with Nick Bjugstad.
Data and Visuals for Hockey Viz
We can see that Maccelli was able to generate some real offence in front of the net and from the right circle. He provided a net +11% swing in offence when he was on the ice versus when he was off it. Compare that to this season, where Maccelli was a net-negative player on the ice despite his strong passing stats. The offence in front of the net dried up.
What we can take away from this is that Maccelli has the potential to be a high upside player. However, the coach needs to be willing to jump headfirst in with this type of player. Give him the ice time and give him the linemates to be successful. Berube can’t expect him to drive his own line, but if he looks for him to be a high-end accent player, acquiring Maccelli could be a fantastic acquisition for the Leafs. It’s a gamble, but it’s a calculated one from Brad Treliving, and one that has the real potential to pay off.
Main Photo Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images
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