Matthew Knies and the complexities of a tough contract negotiation

A few weeks back I had the pleasure of writing about how a Matthew Knies offer sheet made little sense to stress about. The short version of it is that it would either be a contract the Leafs would very happily match and go about their business being able to blame another organization for their over payment or they would have even more cap flexibility and a very good haul of future assets for an admittedly hard to replace player, but it would certainly be an overvalued return.

There are still some contingencies around Knies that need to be sorted out and while it always seemed that the 2024-25 season was about Knies betting on himself and negotiating the contract at this point, so hand wringing Brad Treliving for this isn’t fair, there is always the possibility that an impressive offer from the Leafs before the season could have been a money saver. It would have been the same for William Nylander’s last contract as well and could have likely led to the Leafs saving money on John Tavares too, although too many people are focused on when he will sharply decline and the Tavares situation has some hindsight is 20/20 elements to it.

Taking Knies at his word, he wants to remain a Leaf. That is already the best situation to be in and really makes it so that it’s a fool’s errand to come up with trade scenarios or stress about offer sheets. Knies want to be a Leaf and it seems unfathomable that the Leafs don’t feel exactly the same and their prioritization, at least as has been communicated publicly is signing Knies is their primary objective.

With Knies almost certainly being a Leaf looking at contingencies is a bit more about when it gets done and the cost of getting it done. No matter what Knies will take up a large chunk of the Maple Leafs salary cap and there is a lot of work to making a lot of moving pieces fit, especially with free agency and active trade market about to dominate the summer. Knies isn’t likely going to take a shave on his pay because the Leafs have dished out money elsewhere and if the sticking point is bridge vs. term, what the Leafs have budgeted for vs. what Knies will accept could be two very different numbers. For what it’s worth, it’s probably less about a bridge deal and more about the Leafs trying to buy as many of the unrestricted free agents years as possible.

What if #1: Knies isn’t signed by July 1st

In an ideal world, whatever Knies’ cap hit is, the Leafs know it before the draft and can plan their offseason around the space they have to work with. Also, since Knies isn’t arbitration eligible the offer sheet possibility will exist, and while the Leafs would most likely match, a predatory five year deal that pays Knies around $9M would be matched by the Leafs but potentially see them both paying more than they want and not buying up any unrestricted free agent years.

The Leafs would also be entering free agency with some uncertainty around what Knies will cost them and while there is a benefit to knowing this number, this could also be the Leafs’ front office being saved from themselves. It will either force the Maple Leafs to be a bit more careful about how much money they offer and to whom and it could also lead to the Maple Leafs looking at their roster a bit more objectively later on and shedding some of their current roster to reach cap compliance.

In the highly unlikely event that there is an offer sheet on Knies and the Maple Leafs don’t match it, the closer it comes to July 1st, the better (if you want the Leafs to scramble for replacements).

Replacing Knies isn’t something the Leafs will intend to do but in case they have to or if they look to establish a presence on other lines similar to what Knies brings to the top line, some of the players the Leafs could look at are:

Sam Bennett is the likely unattainable option, but similar gritty options at the high end of the free agency list would include Brad Marchand.

On the cheaper side of things, the players who would make poor substitutes for Knies but play a similar game would include Jack Roslovic, Adam Gaudette, and plenty of others who are better suited to doing battle with Bobby McMann for ice time.

What if #2: Knies isn’t signed by training camp

In the grand scheme of things, all that matters is that the Maple Leafs have Knies ready to go by training camp. And while waiting things out isn’t ideal and every day after the initial free agent frenzy brings the possibility of a bold offer sheet attempt, as long as Knies is ready to go at training camp the Leafs are where they need to be.

Knies potentially going unsigned into training camp and the regular season is a realistic possibility and one that likely means that the Leafs will either be making some tough roster decisions at the last minute, which could involve desperately shedding some salary and going with a barebones 20-player roster to maintain cap compliance.

The idea of the Leafs playing without Knies in a season where they could also be trying to replace Marner and Tavares’ offence in the top six is alarming. It’s a pretty safe bet that the Leafs will have brought in a bit more offensive fire power that would offset potentially two high profile departures, but given that significant change to the top six, it’s not in the Leafs nor Knies’ best interest to have him miss time where the team will be coming together.

The longer the Knies situation goes on the greater likelihood we see the goalposts move on whether or not Knies should be dealt. As much as keeping Knies at all costs is the way of thinking right now, if the Leafs were to bring in a number of physical top six players over the summer or the Maple Leafs start looking like they are destined to take a step back in 2025-26, does moving Knies or not signing the offer sheet start picking up steam?

If the Dallas Stars are in fact willing to move on from Jason Robertson, does a Knies for Robertson swap make sense? After a frenzy of free agent signings, do the Leafs look at their roster and think that Knies is a slightly less critical part of it and that an offer sheet wouldn’t be the end of the world? The answer to both is no and Matthew Knies as one of the youthful talents on the Leafs is still a priority.

What if #3: Knies is gone

Let’s say the worst case scenario happens and Knies is gone to an offer sheet. The worst case scenario here is a 5 year deal at $9.36M AAV which would only yield the Leafs a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick in 2026.

They could certainly use those picks but it’s an absolutely gamble that any one of those players will live up to what Knies does for Toronto and you are going to be waiting a while for those players to deliver. While the picks are nice, Toronto will be left with around $8-9M that likely have set aside for Knies and they will need to look at contigencies there.

It seems unlikely that this will play out at a time when Toronto can pivot to another player at the top of the free agency list. The Leafs lack having their own draft picks for making an offer sheet of their own, leaving the Leafs with a trade market littered with salary dumps. On the plus side, the return on the offer sheet now gives the Leafs some assets teams will want in trade.

If someone like the newest addition to the trade target list, Jordan Kyrou, is available, the Leafs could take a run at someone who looks more like a Marner replacement than a Knies replacement.

Stating the obvious…

The conclusion for the Maple Leafs, a team that needs more youthful talent that play some of their best hockey when the games matter the most, is to sign Matthew Knies. It might be a contract that doesn’t look great in year one or even year two, and it might lack the term that the Leafs want but it brings back a player the team sorely needs.

There are silver linings to any of the term situations involving a Knies contract. A shorter deal, likely what the Leafs are pushing for, represents the best possible price they could have landed him at and gives Toronto one more chance to negotiate with Matthew as a restricted free agent. The medium term, likely what Knies and his camp is pushing for, means not going long term on a player that plays a very hard style of hockey and might not be the player he is today nearly a decade later. The Knies camp might save the Leafs by sparing them the final three available years.

A seven or eight year deal still has a lot of appeal too. And for a team that has been looking for a Wendel Clark, Gary Roberts, or Darcy Tucker type of player for a long time, they can take comfort in having one locked up for the foreseeable future.

No matter how you slice it, a signed Knies is a success, especially with a promising long term salary cap growth projection (famous last words.) The contingencies to a Leafs team without Knies are far less appealing and since Knies’ representation likely knows that, expect them to make it as difficult as possible for Brad Treliving and company.