Mitch Marner’s career-best regular season overshadowed by disappointing series vs. Panthers

Mitch Marner entered his contract year on a mission and delivered the best regular season of his career. Marner posted a career-best 102 points for the Toronto Maple Leafs, carrying the offence during the first half of the regular season, where the team faced a wave of injuries to its forward corps. Marner’s contract status also loomed large over the year, and while it wasn’t a daily point of discussion, especially after the star winger said he wouldn’t talk about his impending status until it was resolved, it was an underlying theme of his 2024-25 campaign.

The 28-year-old finished fifth in NHL scoring, providing excellent returns on the penalty kill and operated as the power play quarterback of the Maple Leafs’ five-forward unit. Marner delivered on everything that was asked of him during the regular season. And then came the playoffs. It’s a story Leafs fans know all too well, and it was extended to its logical extreme this spring.

During a playoff campaign where Marner effectively bet on himself and was tasked with helping the Maple Leafs win an elusive Stanley Cup, he submitted the worst game of his career in Game 5 against the Florida Panthers, and the second-worst game of his career in Game 7. A series of brutal showings when the stakes were at their highest cast a shadow over what was a tour-de-force regular season, almost certainly spelling the end of Marner’s tenure with the Leafs.

How the year went

Marner was held scoreless through the first two regular season games, but quickly found his game in an October 12 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins. As injuries began to mount for the Maple Leafs, Marner was one of the few constants, excelling in all situations, while becoming a more willing and direct shooter through November, recording eight goals and 21 points throughout the month. And while Marner didn’t provide Selke-level defence during the 2024-25 campaign, he still showed the ability to turn defensive impact into instant offence, best exemplified by his electric overtime winner against the Edmonton Oilers on November 16, the 200th goal of his career.

A staple of the first line alongside Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies, Marner elevated the team’s offence during large stretches of the year where Toronto’s captain was battling a lingering upper-body injury. Marner was named to Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster, which provided him with a temporary boost of confidence which translated into further willingness to shoot the puck and drive traffic. He recorded a natural hat-trick against the Detroit Red Wings on December 28 in a terrific all-around performance. Marner was the Maple Leafs’ first half MVP and this was my summary of his performance to-date through the first week of January:

Marner has continued to function as the Maple Leafs’ MVP through the second quarter of the year, with 16 points in 20 games since November 26, and he should be among the leading Selke Trophy candidates. He’s thriving in all situations, his ongoing contract status is no longer a daily talking point and he’s fourth in NHL scoring at the moment. It may be time to start ramping up the Hart Trophy discussions if he continues at this pace.

Marner remained in top form when Matthews returned to the lineup, posting a goal and five points in a 6-4 victory over the Boston Bruins on January 4, which also served as the best game of Knies’ young career. It was a stellar January for Marner and the Maple Leafs, perhaps save for a brutal game against the Carolina Hurricanes, where Marner and Matthews both finished with -6 ratings.

For the first time in his career, Marner played best-on-best international hockey and a change of scenery opened up his game entirely. Marner scored the overtime winner in the round-robin against Sweden and was used throughout the lineup by Canada head coach Jon Cooper. And while Marner’s clutch bonafides were still under question, he set up Connor McDavid’s tournament-winning goal against the United States, temporarily pausing any queries into his ability to deliver on the big stage. Marner returned to the Maple Leafs in top form and notched an emotional overtime goal against the Boston Bruins on February 25.

The narratives surrounding Marner changed when it was reported that he elected not to waive his no-trade clause, when asked by Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving ahead of the trade deadline. Carolina reportedly was willing to trade Mikko Rantanen for Marner, Treliving asked Marner if he’d waive the clause, and Toronto’s winger declined. Marner later told reporters he had a feeling he’d be asked to waive his no-movement clause but refused to expand on the status of his ongoing negotiations.

Marner effectively bet on himself during the postseason and it really depends on your vantage point how it worked out. From the Leafs’ perspective, Marner’s no-show in Game 5 and 7 against the Panthers cemented his tenure with the club, as fans rained boos from Scotiabank Arena throughout the third period of the closeout game. Marner scored a clutch goal in Game 6 against the Panthers, but it became a footnote after the Leafs capitulated against the Panthers in Game 7, with beers strewn on the ice during the handshake line. It was a crushing end to the best statistical campaign of Marner’s career.

Statistical profile

Category	Production	NHL rank
Expected goals percentage	51.77	T-218th
Goal differential	+18	76th
Corsi	49.98%	T-316th
Expected goals for per 60	2.78	T-129th
Expected goals against per 60	2.59	T-426th
Individual expected goals	10.78	T-197th
Shooting percentage	13.04	T-103

All stats 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick

Marner was one of the NHL’s best offensive players during the regular season, and for parts of the season, he displayed a greater willingness to shoot the puck. He’s a dynamic playmaker and was asked to play in all situations, which isn’t accounted for in the above profile. Marner is often considered a Selke-level defensive player and while you have to account for the quality of opponents faced, he wasn’t close to this level during the second half of the season. He’s a tremendous player in the peak of his prime, but his best qualities don’t translate in the clutch for the Maple Leafs.

Select highlights

Mitch Marner overtime winner, Edmonton Oilers, November 16, 2024 

LIGHTS, CAMERA, MITCH, SMILE!!! pic.twitter.com/I7ufmkoeho

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) November 17, 2024

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Mitch Marner overtime winner, Boston Bruins, February 25, 2025 

“HOLY MACKINAW!”

MARNER OT WINNER VS BRUINS courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph pic.twitter.com/IoQ2BFSOx1

— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) February 26, 2025

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