The offseason has arrived with the draft and free agency fast approaching. Accordingly, it’s time to look at what each team needs to accomplish this summer. Next up is a look at Toronto.
The Maple Leafs’ consistent run of strong regular-season play continued in 2024-25 with an 108-point season and their first division title in an 82-game season since 2000. While they did advance further in the postseason than in 22 years, they blew a 2-0 series lead in the second round against the eventual champion Panthers and failed to make their first Eastern Conference Final of the Auston Matthews era. General manager Brad Treliving now faces the most pivotal offseason in Toronto in years with multiple high-profile pending free agents and significant spending flexibility.
Identify Marner Replacements
Mitch Marner was the team’s third-highest-paid player at a $10.9MM cap hit as he completed the seven-year deal he signed as an RFA in 2019. He was easily set to become Toronto’s second-most or even highest-paid player ahead of Matthews this summer – that is, if he stayed with the Leafs instead of testing the open market. That won’t be the case, and the Leafs must now change from devoting resources to a Marner extension to identifying who can most effectively replace his production and add depth to the forward lineup.
Treliving is not finding a direct replacement for Marner’s 100-plus points; that much is certain. The trade-off for losing one of the league’s premier playmaking wingers will be the freedom of cap space re-allocation to improve the club’s depth lines while putting more trust in Matthews to anchor the top one. There will be at least two wingers acquired in Marner’s stead, either via trade or free agency. They already struck out on one – they were pretty interested in Mason Marchment before the Stars traded him to the Kraken last week.
They haven’t been heavily linked to the consensus No. 2 and No. 3 wingers on the market behind Marner this summer in Nikolaj Ehlers and Brock Boeser. There has, however, been heavy speculation about a fit between them and veteran Brad Marchand. Coming off a second-place finish in Conn Smythe Trophy voting after rattling off 20 points in 23 games in Florida’s Stanley Cup win, the Leafs are in a better position to give him a lucrative mid-term deal compared to most other contenders and would give him the opportunity to play at home in Canada for the first timem in his 13-year career. Even at his highest feasible price point, they’d still have another $2.5MM to $3MM to spend on a middle-six winger to complement names like William Nylander and Max Domi while presumably slotting Marchand in Marner’s slot alongside Matthews and Matthew Knies (more on him later).
After striking out on a player with upward top-nine mobility at a cheap price point in Marchment, that appears to be a path Treliving is heavily considering. Former 35-goal man Andrew Mangiapane is heading to the market after a tough season with the Capitals and should be available around that aforementioned price point. Toronto is among the teams reportedly showing a keen interest in signing him when free agency opens on July 1.
Ramp Up Knies, Tavares Talks
The more cost certainty they have, the more active the Maple Leafs can be in achieving checklist item No. 1 in nine days. Right now, they have very little. Their top RFA, Knies, and their top UFA with a chance of extending/returning, center John Tavares, remain without new deals. It’s not the best omen. The tone around the Leafs and Knies’ negotiations has been overwhelmingly positive from the outset, with reporting last month indicating neither side was worried about an offer-sheet threat and that there was a mutual understanding of what the final deal would end up looking like. There seemingly hasn’t been any notable progress in talks since that point, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period said Friday.
There’s similarly no extension imminent with Tavares, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic relayed in the last couple of days. That’s the more concerning bit of news. An offer sheet is always a possibility for Knies, but he at least remains under team control past July 1, and he has to actually sign the offer sheet for it to be of any significance. Tavares hitting the open market and leaving without a quick succession plan in place could result in disaster down the middle without a ton of suitable 2C replacements on the open market, particularly after Matt Duchene recently extended with the Stars on a quite team-friendly pact.
The act of re-signing Tavares frees up cap space, not limits it. His next deal won’t come anywhere close to his expiring $11MM cap hit, cementing both a discount at the center position for Toronto behind Matthews and added cost certainty to firm up the roster around the edges behind whatever the largest open-market splash they’re able to make ends up being.
There’s also the stipulation that while losing Marner’s point production without being able to get close to reconstructing it by committee would be tough to swallow, losing Tavares’ output in the same manner would be disastrous. While the 34-year-old may not have been fully worth the cap space he was taking up at the end of his deal, he was still an incredibly high-end producer last season. His 38 goals in 75 games were 12th in the league and marked his second-best goal-scoring season as a Leaf. He was also top-40 in the league in points per game at 0.99. Aside from veteran stopgap Mikael Granlund, there’s no UFA center with that kind of output as his ceiling. Among trade options, young Wild pivot Marco Rossi would be the only one fitting that bill, but Toronto wouldn’t be willing to part with the NHL-ready assets Minnesota wants in return, considering their existing issues navigating roster turnover this summer.
Explore Cap-Clearing Trade
Despite the lack of easily attainable potential replacements for their pending free agents, the Leafs at least have nearly $26MM in spending flexibility at the start of free agency to remove that as an immediately limiting factor. They could still open up their window of options even wider and prevent an August/September cap crunch by shedding a low-value contract now. They don’t have many, but there are a few among their depth forwards. Veteran winger Calle Järnkrok is entering the final year of his contract at a $2.1MM cap hit and has minimal trade protection with a 10-team no-trade list. He could be well-positioned to land them a legitimate return at that price point, but he could also be a cost-effective rebound candidate for them, too. Injuries limited him to just 19 regular-season games last year and he was underwhelming in the playoffs, but he’s averaged 38 points per 82 games since signing in Toronto three years ago.
A more desirable deal to move if possible would be David Kämpf, making $2.4MM against the cap through 2026-27 with a 10-team no-trade list that lapses in the summer of 2026. That’s notable as a team acquiring Kämpf now could flip him again next season without any contractual obstacle. He was an increasingly frequent healthy scratch last year, had 13 points and a minus-one rating in 59 games, and saw his ice time dip to a career-low 12:24 per game when dressed. He’s a true redundancy with a cheaper, higher-ceiling offensive option in the mix next year in Scott Laughton after being acquired from the Flyers at the trade deadline.
There’s also the matter of veteran enforcer Ryan Reaves, who remains under contract at a $1.35MM cap hit. They can reduce that to just $200K by waiving him and burying him in the minors like they did for the home stretch last year. They’ll presumably do that again if he’s still on the books, but if they can make the deal someone else’s problem for a low-round draft pick, they’ll presumably explore that to open up as much spending flexibility as possible.
Upgrade Scoring Depth
Any cap savings created by Toronto’s turnover this summer outside of direct replacements or new deals for pending UFAs should be staying with the forward group. There are a few reasons for this. For one, there’s little to no maneuverability (or motivation) to alter the personnel anywhere else on the roster. The Leafs have one of the league’s most cost-effective goaltending tandems, and their veteran defense corps shone bright under head coach Craig Berube last season. Even if they wanted to make a change, they already have nine defenders signed to one-way deals for next season, most with significant trade protection.
The secondary roster construction goal for Treliving this summer needs to be helping the club rediscover its offensive ceiling. Their 3.26 goals per game was still top 10 in the league in 2024-25, but their lowest output since the 2016-17 campaign nonetheless. While they had six 20-goal scorers last year, the dropoff after them was steep, and only eight players hit the 30-point mark.
In the past couple of years, these types of pickups have needed to wait until closer to training camp, as was the case with Steven Lorentz and Max Pacioretty in 2024. This offseason, Treliving has the spending flexibility up front to get cheap depth pickups out of the way early, but he might be better served to wait a couple of weeks for prices to come down.
Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images.