Toronto Maple Leafs forward John Tavares may be well on the wrong side, but he didn’t play like it last year which would be considered one of his best since joining the team in 2018.
His 74 points (38 goals and 36 assists) in 75 games played were good enough for fourth on the team in scoring, while his seven points (five goals and two assists) in 13 playoff games were fifth on the Leafs. He finished second on the team in goals both during the regular season and playoffs, with only William Nylander ahead of him. Tavares was the Leafs’ go-to faceoff guy with an impressive 58.3% efficiency that was also among the best in the NHL.
It was more than enough to earn himself a four-year extension on June 27th that carries an AAV of $4.38 million. There were reports that he could have received offers upwards of $7 million annually if Tavares had hit the open market, but he took less to ensure he got what he wanted: to remain a Leaf. Now that he is no longer considered a member of the Core Four (heck, there is no Core Four anymore), he will be judged not as an $11 million player but as one making well under $5 million.
Given the type of season he is coming off of and the improved depth, there is a case to be made that it could be viewed as a bargain for the duration of the deal. That’s not to say he will once again have a nearly 40-goal campaign, but even flirting with 30 goals will be seen as a win in year one.
The goal: Hold off Father Time for as long as possible
Tavares will be 35 years old when the 2025-26 campaign kicks off, and that means he is firmly in the downward trajectory of his career as far as overall effectiveness is concerned. With him being back for another go around and likely in a top-six role, his utilization is going to play a pivotal role in how things unfold for the veteran centre.
Speed has never been his forte and he is already starting to slow down even more, so he will likely need to see his minutes reallocated towards more offensive zone starts. This past season saw him take a portion of his shifts beginning in his own end and that resulted in the underlying metrics taking a hit compared to the year prior. Ensuring he gets more favourable matchups to accommodate his decreasing footspeed would help in ensuring the Leafs spend more time in the offensive zone when he is on the ice.
The goal for the Leafs this year and over the next three campaigns is to ensure that Tavares can age gracefully so they are able to get the most out of his twilight years. While it may not be a popular opinion, a way that it can be realized is by once again pairing him up with William Nylander and another winger who will mesh well with their playstyles. My early picks for who would get in that spot are Bobby McMann and Matias Maccelli, though it depends on what kind of line Craig Berube wants to build with Tavares as the centre piece (my pick at the time of filing would be McMann).
The expectation: A 25+ goal, 60+ point campaign
Expecting Tavares to once again hover around 40 goals would be asking a lot, though it’s certainly possible that he can fill some of the offence lost from Mitch Marner.
After all, Tavares should once again be seeing plenty of touches on the first power-play unit in the bumper role that he continues to thrive in. He tied with Nylander for the team lead in tallies on the man advantage with 12, which is also tied for 17th in the NHL. He still has a solid release that can be deadly from the slot, he has great awareness to deflect shots, and his playmaking abilities have not gone away, so the offence in that department should remain fairly strong. It all boils down to how well his production holds up at even strength, and Tavares is coming off a year where 54 of his points were at even strength. An ideal outcome for him would be right around 40 or higher which is more than doable for him.
There will be plenty of motivation on his side to keep up the pace, given that he was invited to the Canadian Men’s Orientation Camp in anticipation of the Olympics. Tavares admitted last season he was disappointed to not be able to represent his country at the 4 Nations Face-Off and this will most likely be his last chance to wear the Red and White on the international stage, so you can expect to see Tavares looking to prove he is more than worthy of playing for Canada one more time. And the Leafs will be better off for it.
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