The Toronto Maple Leafs are expected to ice a vastly different roster from what they used in Game 7 against the Florida Panthers.
Most of the changes are expected to come up front, with the likely departure of Mitch Marner being at the forefront of this change. It certainly makes sense why Brad Treliving would look to change some of the DNA of the forwards, given that the lack of offence collectively was part of their downfall in the second round. But another factor in their scoring drying up was not generating enough scoring chances from their back end, which the GM noted during his end-of-season media availability.
“I like the length of our defence, I like the makeup of our defence but you still have to get up and down the ice. Part of how we play will lend itself to giving up some volume,” he said on May 29th. “We need to get more offence from our defence. Not just goals. We can get some more volume the other way. In terms of personnel, we’ll see. I like the D-core but we can’t be rigid. We fell short. We have to continue to look at ways we can get better.”
Part of that could come from an adjustment to the system Craig Berube implemented, but another way would be in bringing in a defenceman who is better at contributing on offence. Luckily for them, there is an inexpensive option who has the makings of a breakout candidate in Nick Perbix.
Right off the hop, Perbix checks one of Treliving’s boxes of what he looks for in a blueliner: he is pretty bulky as he stands at 6’4″ and weighs 206 pounds. He is also a right-shot defenceman who possesses a solid two-way game and has good awareness of how to approach the situation at either end of the ice. And there have been plenty of flashes that he has it in him to blossom into a top-four defenceman in a different environment.
What has held Perbix back is the fact that the Tampa Bay Lightning are stacked on the blueline, and there haven’t been many opportunities available for him to give it a try above the third-pair other than injuries. In some ways, it makes sense why that is the case given he is fresh off his third NHL campaign and coaches tend to lean more on players with experience. With guys like Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak, and Ryan McDonagh on the roster, it has therefore been difficult for Perbix to get a chance in the top-four.
This past season saw Perbix primarily on the third pair alongside rookie Emil Lilliberg, and the pairing did not exactly light the world on fire when sharing the ice. They did not control the pace of play, allowing more scoring chances against than for, and were on the ice for more goals against. It is worth noting that when separated from each other at 5v5, Lilliberg’s underlying numbers took a bigger hit while Perbix saw drastic improvements. This suggests that the latter would have been more effective had the Lightning used him more with any blueliner other than the former.
Although he has been far from an offensive producer at the NHL level so far, Perbix has been able to hover around 20 points a season throughout his first three seasons with the Lightning. He is fresh off a season where he amassed 19 points (six goals and 13 assists) in 74 games played, which was fifth among Tampa defencemen. For reference, he would have placed fourth among Leafs blueliners this season, ahead of Chris Tanev and behind Jake McCabe.
Perbix hit on Tkachuk. pic.twitter.com/W71J2a5two
— Chris Krenn (@Chris_Krenn) October 22, 2022
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Like with all players, there are some things about his game that the Leafs would need to keep in mind if they choose to pursue him. While Perbix is certainly capable of dishing out big hits such as this one on Matthew Tkachuk, he isn’t going to be a physical force on the back end. Instead of being aggressive at the blueline, trying to deny entries, he is instead more calculated in his approaches to boxing out his opponent. He will do well at carrying the puck up the ice or making a pass to relieve the pressure, but he is also more selective with his shots and isn’t a high-volume shooter.
That’s not to say all of these are major weaknesses. For starters, his more calculated approach on defence means he is very disciplined and doesn’t take a lot of penalties; he finished with 20 minutes last season, which is comparable to Tanev who had 24. Perbix may not take a lot of shots, but the ones he does take that reach their target have generated a lot of rebounds that have resulted in assists, which is a great trait for a defenceman to have especially on the power play. And he may not throw many big body checks, but he has the smarts to know when to go for one that’s clean.
Perbix is coming off a two-year contract that carried an AAV of $1.125 million, and AFP Projections has his next contract at two years with a $2.7 million AAV. Given that he was ranked 40th on Daily Faceoff’s Top 50 Free Agents and is the fourth-highest RHD, he likely will get a contract similar to what is being projected or even less than that. Meaning he would be a smart bet for teams like the Leafs to make for someone who could breakout in a different system than what he has been used to in Tampa.
The Leafs will be looking to get more out of their blueline from an offensive standpoint, and perhaps they could address that with a buy-low candidate in Perbix. He may not be a well-known commodity right now, but it would be in Treliving’s best interest to take a run at the 26-year-old if he were available on July 1st.