Florida Panthers forward Sam Bennett may be in the lead for the Conn Smythe Trophy at the time of this filing, so it’s not a particularly bold idea to suggest that he should be heavily pursued this summer. Bennett would constitute the DNA change that Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving alluded to at his end-of-year media availability, emerging as one of the defining playoff performers of the past decade. The 28-year-old was already considered one of the marquee targets in this year’s free agency class and an excellent performance in the Stanley Cup Final will only see his value continue to ascend ahead of July 1.
Bennett’s next contract may eventually prove to be too rich for the Maple Leafs’ liking, while the Panthers will do all they can to retain one of the key members of their core, especially if they repeat as champions. He’s also precisely what the Maple Leafs have lacked and Bennett’s uncanny ability to bend the rules, while elevating his game by several tiers in the postseason are diametric opposites to the core’s performances in the spring over the past decade. This would constitute a real departure from the Maple Leafs’ previous roster composition and with Mitch Marner almost certainly gone, there will be ample cap space for Toronto to reshuffle its forward corps.
And here’s the question surrounding Bennett: do you pay for a player that hasn’t registered more than 28 goals in a single regular season? How much does this ultimately matter, as Bennett currently leads all players with 14 goals this postseason? How do you reconcile the gap between Bennett’s relatively pedestrian regular season totals compared to his volcanic output in the playoffs? There doesn’t appear to be a linear answer as many of Bennett’s strengths are intangible — how do you account for leading the league in being a pest, or breaking an opponent’s composure, or getting away with infractions time and again that would be called on virtually any other player in the NHL?
Here’s what we can quantify: Florida has controlled greater than 54 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 when Bennett is on the ice in each of the past four seasons, via Natural Stat Trick. During this year’s playoff run, the Panthers control 56 percent of the expected goals when Bennett is on the ice. He’s a natural centreman with an innate ability to get to the high-danger areas of the ice, especially when the games become more meaningful. And he’s still firmly in the prime of his career, so while the sticker shock that comes with his next contract may be a bit difficult to stomach, he’ll be a quality player for the first four years of his next contract at the very least, where he could grow together with Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Matthew Knies as the next pillars of the franchise.
Bennett is currently projected as the second-best free agent in this year’s class by Daily Faceoff, behind Marner. AFP Analytics projects that Bennett will receive a six-year contract worth $6.4 million annually — this projection hasn’t accounted for Bennett’s performance in the Final, and if he captures the Conn Smythe, that price tag is going to skyrocket. To be clear, the Maple Leafs become a less talented team if you swap Marner and Bennett 1-for-1, despite the latter’s playoff pedigree. Perhaps pairing Bennett and Brad Marchand is a dream scenario that may prove far too difficult for Treliving to pull off, especially with new contracts required for Knies and John Tavares. The pursuit is still worth it for a player routinely delivering premium results in the playoff.
Everything should be on the table for the Maple Leafs, with a DNA change promised. Bennett is antithetical to the current Maple Leafs’ core makeup in every way and therefore, should be a top target for the Maple Leafs this summer.