- Regulation record vs. OT/Shootout record as well as goal dif and special teams data show this team is bad
- As things sit, Woll is the only one capable of making the Leafs a playoff team
- Is this failure terminal or just a bad season?
Optimism is nice and the holidays are a time of year to be a little happier and full of joy. I’m not sure any of this applies to the 2025-26 Toronto Maple Leafs who have now enjoyed over 30 games of leeway in figuring it out and getting on track.
A festivus approach is required with this organization that has enjoyed too much goodwill this season.
What numbers are supposed to inspire optimism?
One win still goes a long way in shifting the narrative from the Leafs being at the bottom of the Eastern Conference to being on the bubble for a final playoff spot. Toronto’s 35 points is just one point above the last place Sabres but they are also only four points behind the final wildcard team. A short win streak corrects a lot of the Leafs issues but amazingly 33 games into the year the Maple Leafs haven’t shown the consistency to make gains in the standings.
Losing in overtime or the shootout has been the saving grace for the Maple Leafs so far. There have only been 11 regulation wins. A third of their games. And while they’ve been 11-13 in regulation they’ve also suffered as a 4-5 team in extra time. Their home record, essentially their bright spot, is just .500 hockey in the truest sense and with the majority of the remaining games being played on the road, it feels like things are going to get worse.
The goal differential is a -3. Their powerplay is second last in the league (their net PP% is the worst in the league.) The Leafs have the second highest shots against per 60 in the league and averaging being outshot by 4.2 shots per game.
In the season of hope, the Leafs are demanding a Costco sized pallet of it in order to salvage this season.
Is there a point to any of this rant? Other than trying to be an intervention for the true believers, I’d hope that serves as a rallying cry to stop calling about Rasmus Andersson. He’s a good defenceman, but the Leafs aren’t one good defenceman away from achieving anything.
It’s hopefully a wakeup call to Keith Pelley that over 30 games is a lot of time to figure things out and the Leafs haven’t.
It’s a reminder that good teams win even when a good player is out of the lineup. If the Leafs can’t function because Chris Tanev isn’t in the lineup, that still points to a flawed team and it’s not a viable excuse to hang the Leafs results on injury woes. Injuries will always happen and the Leafs have won while dealing with injuries before, this team is worse.
Joseph Woll as the Leafs saviour
Last season it was Anthony Stolarz that stole the show in net, but this season Woll has taken up the mantle as the saving grace in net, and potentially the team MVP. Woll’s 5-3-1 record isn’t stellar, but by Leafs standards it is remarkable, and his .927 save percentage and 5.5 goals saved above expected are the Leafs’ best hope now that Dennis Hildeby has returned to earth.
Woll going on a prolonged heater or the Leafs being able to hand the net to whomever has the hot hand seems like the only feasible path to the playoffs at the moment, as the team needs approximately .590 points percentage the rest of the season to barely squeak into a wild card spot.
Given the struggles across the rest of the lineup card, it’s going to fall on the goaltenders and it seems like Woll is the best candidate to run with the net this season.
The catches are injuries. Woll has already had one this season and his career isn’t light on them. And last season when Woll was the workhorse in December and January, his numbers dipped.
It’s too much to put the success of the Leafs this season entirely on Woll and if the Leafs aren’t a playoff team this year I’m not sure that any of Toronto’s goaltenders should be scolded for that, but the reality is with a lot of problem areas on the team, hot goaltending is the one area that can cover up obvious problems that need to be fixed.
They’re not dead yet…
This has been a pretty pessimistic post so far. Even when praising Woll’s play this year it feels like there was more pessimism than optimism. And from where I’m sitting at the very least it seems like it is time to divorce ourselves of any expectations of the Leafs being contenders this year, take the opportunity to cash out on some pending free agents, and see who can play their asses off to make a case for a better Leafs team next season.
The question I’d ask, is if this Leafs era is now requiring hospice. Is this the end stage for this Leafs era? That seems very premature to call. The Leafs’ goaltending is still a bright spot. Players like Nylander, Tavares, Knies, and Matthews are still strong performers and while the Leafs might have too many elder statesmen on their blueline, retaining a couple of them also forms a solid starting point for a back end. Cowan shows promise, Danford is on the way, and Toronto has cap space to work with in the summer. There is still hope.
The Leafs just need to make some tough decisions, and a lot of those decisions need to come from above Brad Treliving and involve both his future and the future of Craig Berube with the Leafs organization. The Leafs need to consider if there is any sense in rushing players like Tanev or Stolarz back from injury or if getting them ready for next season is the right course of action. And while it wouldn’t be a decision that Auston Matthews would make until after the Olympics, the Leafs need to consider if shutting down their star for the year to improve his health is the better long term play at the cost of this season.
Thinking short term and making an
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ill-advised run at the playoffs this year seems like it is inviting further setbacks. The problem might be that when you have a GM that feels his seat getting hotter, short term thinking will become the priority. (I don’t think asking an NHL coach to do anything other than think short term is unrealistic.) And while this isn’t advocating for the Leafs tanking this season, it is an acknowledgement that setting the Leafs up for success next season and getting to work on that now is a more attainable goal than trying to win a Stanley Cup in 2026.