Toronto stays winning no matter where this NBA Mega-Star ends up

Whether he goes West, stays in Milwaukee, or finds a new home in the East, the Raptors should come out as a winner in the Giannis sweepstakes.

The never-ending saga that is Giannis Antetokounmpo in a Toronto Raptors uniform has taken a new turn, inching one step closer to a Nico Harrison-Rob Pelinka-level interaction between Masai Ujiri and Jon Horst at Las Vegas Summer League.

In his latest mailbag, the Toronto Star’s Doug Smith stated there is mutual interest between the Raptors and Antetokounmpo.

Granted, he didn’t elaborate on the extent of the interest. Is Giannis interested like a love-struck, hopeless romantic? Or is he interested in the same way my high school crushes were interested in me…..as a friend?

Regardless of the interest level, the Raptors figure to prosper from the latest Giannis rumour mill. Let’s examine his options.

According to FanDuel’s latest odds (as of June 2, 2025), here are the betting favourites for Antetokounmpo’s next team:

• Milwaukee Bucks +105
• San Antonio Spurs +470
• Houston Rockets +800
• Toronto Raptors +1100

While every team is likely calling Jon Horst and technically a plausible suitor in 3 or 4-team trade machinations, the top 4 teams listed above offer a fairly straightforward template in which to categorize the Giannis sweepstakes: Stay in Milwaukee, move out West, or stay in the (North)East.

Giannis staying put in Milwaukee is good for the Raptors

We’ve done this song-and-dance before with Giannis. The rumour mill gets the trade-starved fans (myself included) in a tizzy with morsels of news that the Greek Freak may have one foot out the door. Why does this feel any more real than the previous instances?

Age and roster.

The Bucks were the second-oldest team last year behind the Los Angeles Clippers. They figure to be younger next season with Brook Lopez entering unrestricted free agency and Dame Lillard out for most, if not all, of next season. Kyle Kuzma is the only other Buck with a full guaranteed contract next season, which is scary for two reasons: 1) Kuzma, Dame, and Giannis are set to earn more than $130 million next season; 2) he’s Kyle Kuzma!

Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, and Kevin Porter Jr. all have player options. AJ Green, Andre Jackson, Chris Livingston, and Tyler Smith are all on partially guaranteed contracts.

Milwaukee doesn’t have the cap space to make any significant additions in free agency and cannot build in this year’s draft because they don’t own their first-round pick (only the 47th pick in round two).

While the Bucks are the betting favourite and, as he has consistently proved, likely to be Giannis’ team after all is said and done, this is an incredibly unbalanced roster with one superstar and a collection of average-to-mediocre teammates.

From a Raptors perspective, the Bucks are one less team to worry about next season.

If Giannis goes West, the Raptors still win

The lottery gods continue shining down on the San Antonio Spurs! By landing the 2nd pick, the Spurs may have been gifted the perfect piece to a trade package for Giannis.

Not to be outdone, the Houston Rockets have a plethora of enticing pieces for a Giannis trade package — should they choose to enter the sweepstakes.

Both of those teams hit all the checkboxes for what Milwaukee would want in a deal: young prospects and many draft picks.

Regardless of which Texas team, or any West team, makes a deal with the Bucks, the Raptors prosper because that’s one less superstar in the East! With Jayson Tatum out for most of next season, Joel Embiid almost completing his transformation into Mr. Glass, and the Eastern Conference’s Finals representative sporting a regular season record that would not have been good enough to host a first round series in the West……the East is there for the taking!

Even if Giannis stays in the East, it will benefit Toronto

Until Giannis is moved, no trade news cycle is complete without the inclusion of Heat Culture and Madison Square Garden. Brooklyn and their plethora of first-round picks and Boston with their growing payroll and closing championship window will surely enter the sweepstakes too.

But let’s be real: if Giannis truly wants to stay in the East, the Raptors are the closest thing to an ideal trade partner with Milwaukee. No other East team checks all the boxes as closely as the Raptors do. Yes, there are multi-team iterations that can help other East suitors, but Toronto can explore those same options.

The Raptors have all their draft picks, including the 9th pick in this month’s draft, a stable of good, young prospects (Ochai Agbaji, Gradey Dick, Ja’Kobe Walter) and large, moveable contracts (RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley). Houston may not enter the sweepstakes at all, while San Antonio’s package of Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle may not appeal to the Bucks as much as Toronto’s established pieces.

A Giannis-Scottie-Jak frontcourt would clog the paint, but Antetokounmpo’s arrival should open the gates to eligible free agents (read: outside shooters) wanting to join a contender.

Including Barnes in a potential Giannis trade may work out better when balancing the roster, since they are both long-armed, paint-driven forwards with limited outside shooting and need the ball in their hands. Trading Barnes would also fly in the face of everything Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster have said about Scottie and his stature as the face of the Raptors’ next era.

But when you can get one of the five best players in the world, you do everything you can to make it happen. Just ask Rob Pelinka.